Friday, April 15, 2011

A Look Back: The 2006 NFL Draft


   For the Buffalo Bills, the 2006 NFL Draft will always be notable for being Marv Levy's first as team general manager.  Unfortunately, it will also be remembered as a prime example of the front office incompetence that has kept the franchise out of the playoffs for a full decade and counting.
   In pulling the former Hall of Fame coach out of retirement, Bills owner Ralph Wilson was clearly trying to capture some magic left over from the "glory years" following a terrible 5-11 season.  However, most team observers questioned if Levy (80-years-old at the time) really had what it took to build a winning team in the area of free agency and the salary cap.  Looking back, the critics were correct in that assessment.  Levy proved to be in way over his head and eventually resigned from the position after only two seasons.
    Going into draft weekend on April 29-30, 2006, Levy was already under fire from the media and fans for his underwhelming head coach hire (Dick Jauron) and weak free agent signings (Robert Royal, Larry Tripplett). 
   Despite holes all over the roster, the majority of fans were calling for the Bills to fill their need at defensive tackle with the number eight draft choice - targeting either Oregon's Haloti Ngata or Florida State's Brodrick Bunkley.  Those unhappy with the progression of J.P. Losman suggested nabbing a quarterback like USC's Matt Leinart or Vanderbilt's Jay Cutler.  Meanwhile, later picks could be used to shore up holes on the offensive line, in the secondary and at wide receiver.
   To say the Bills draft went against conventional wisdom would be an understatement.  The first round selections of safety Donte Whitner and defensive tackle John McCargo puzzled experts, who wasted no time in calling the team's 2006 draft a complete disaster.
   In all fairness, this draft class did ultimately contribute one very good player in fifth-round steal Kyle Williams, who has gradually developed over the last five years into a potential star on the defensive line.  And if not for some injuries and unforeseen circumstances (such as the surprising retirement of Brad Butler), there were some other late round picks that could have eventually become solid NFL starters.
   Here is a pick-by-pick look at how each of the 2006 selections has panned out so far.

Donte Whitner, Safety, Ohio State
First Round: #8 Overall
Donte Whitner, Safety, Ohio State
   Looking solely at Whitner’s production over the past five years, most people would probably admit that he's been a decent NFL safety. 
   But when you are a Top 10 pick in the draft and the first choice of a brand-new regime, you are expected to be a lot more than decent.
   Coming out of college, Whitner was widely considered the second best safety in the draft, right behind Texas’ Michael Huff.  Because of his aggressive play and skills at defending the run, most analysts had him going late in the first round or early in the second.  When the Bills called his name at the number eight slot, it was widely considered a tremendous reach - especially with players like Ngata, Bunkley, Leinart and Cutler still on the board.
   During his career, Whitner has managed very few big plays: racking up only 5 interceptions, 3 fumbles and 1.5 sacks (see stat sheet). Overall, he has proven to be a solid tackler - a plus considering how the Bills front seven struggle against the run.  His biggest weakness remains in coverage, where he struggles to stay with good pass-catching tight ends.  The last few years, Whitner has also been forced to battle for his starting job against converted wide receiver George Wilson.
   Making Whitner's career an even bigger disappointment has been the play of Ngata (the consensus pick amongst most Bills fans), who has turned in two Pro Bowl seasons for the Baltimore Ravens and become one of the best linemen in the league.

First Round: #26 Overall
John McCargo, Defensive Tackle, North Carolina State
   What made Buffalo’s selection of Whitner even more disastrous, was that it left the team scrambling only a few picks later to fill arguably its biggest need.  In a draft where defensive tackle depth was poor, the front office seemingly panicked that it wouldn’t be able to get a decent prospect with their second round choice.
   This resulted in Levy and co. sending their third round choice to the Chicago Bears, in order to jump up several slots and snag McCargo - a prospect most analysts didn't even have going until the middle of the second or early third round.
John McCargo, Tackle, NC State
   Though Whitner can be viewed as solid yet unspectacular, McCargo has been a complete bust, barely able to sniff the field in his first five seasons.
   At North Carolina State, McCargo benefitted from playing between Mario Williams and Manny Lawson.  With a quick initial burst, the Bills hoped he would be an asset to their newly implemented Cover 2 defense.
   Injuries ultimately derailed McCargo during his rookie season, although he hasn't managed to get anywhere near back on track at any point since.  Coaches have criticized him for a poor work ethic.  His less-than-impressive stat line includes one career start, 2.5 career sacks and 32 career tackles.
   The nail in the coffin came in 2008 when McCargo was traded to the Indianapolis Colts for an unspecified draft pick.  He was later returned to the Bills after failing his physical.
   To date, McCargo has managed to remain on Buffalo's roster, although it's hard to understand why.  Besides barely scratching the field, his size remains a poor fit for the Bills current 3-4 defensive scheme.

Third Round: 70th Overall
Ashton Youboty, Cornerback, Ohio State
   After being panned for reaching horribly on the first day of the draft, the Bills managed to snag several supposed "steals" in the later rounds.  Unfortunately, most of those bargains also failed to work out.
   With good size and all the skills to become a starting NFL cornerback, most figured that Youboty would be drafted sometime in the second round, with the potential to crack the first round.
   Like McCargo, Youboty has battled injuries and made virtually no on-the-field impact during his young career.  As of 2011, he has played mostly in nickle and dime packages, while managing only seven starts and one interception in five seasons (see stat sheet).  Lacking the speed to stay with most NFL receivers, Youboty has struggled to keep a roster spot.  This year's training camp might be his last with the Bills.

Fourth Round: 105th Overall
Ko Simpson, Safety, South Carolina
   By the fourth round, Levy and Jauron's draft strategy of implementing a youth-movement in the secondary was very clear.  While Whitner was expected to take the place of Lawyer Milloy, Simpson was considered heir-apparent to the aging Troy Vincent, until injuries destroyed a once promising career.
  A draft-eligible sophomore, Simpson was considered another potential steal for the Bills - garnering a second round grade from the experts.  Known as a ballhawk at South Carolina with strong pass coverage skills, Simpson dropped in the draft because of a lack of experience. 
   He immediately proved his worth in Buffalo, starting 15 games his rookie season and racking up 51 tackles and two interceptions.  In Week 1 of the 2007 season, Simpson broke his ankle and was subsequently put on injured reserve.
  Though he did play another full season for the Bills, Simpson was never the same after his injury (see career stats) and was traded to the Detroit Lions for a seventh round pick, where he remains a fringe starter.

Fifth Round: 134th Overall
Kyle Williams, Defensive Tackle, LSU
Kyle Williams, Tackle, LSU
   If the Bills can be criticized for blowing their early picks on marginal starters and injury prone backups, then credit must be due for knocking this one out of the park.
   With a breakout season in 2010, Williams emerged as the best and possibly most versatile player on the defense.
   At LSU, Williams earned the reputation as a very hard-worker with a non-stop motor in pursuing the ballcarrier.  But even a very good college career wasn't enough to ease scout concerns about his lack of size and athletic ability.
   It didn't take long for Williams to earn a starting spot along Buffalo's weak front defensive line.  Although he showed gradual progression each year (see stat line), going into 2010 many believed he wouldn't fit into the team's new 3-4 defense.
   Instead, Williams exploded with a Pro-Bowl season, proving he could handle the nose tackle position in a 3-4 just as well as in a four-man front.
   If he continues to improve and if the Bills give him some help along the line, Williams could eventually be discussed amongst the best in the NFL at his position.

Fifth Round: 143rd Overall
Brad Butler, Offensive Lineman, Virginia 
   It was disappointing to see the Bills wait until the fifth round to address their deficiencies along the offensive line.  But for a while, it really looked like Butler was going to be a solid addition.  That was, until his unexpected retirement after the 2009 season.
   After missing all but two games his rookie season, Butler earned the starting right guard spot in 2007 on a depleted Bills line.  He was seen as a good interior run blocker and was expected to be the long-term answer at right tackle. 
   During the second game of the 2009 season, Butler tore his ACL.  He never returned to football (see career stats), choosing instead to pursue his dream of doing service to kids in the community.

Sixth Round: 178th Overall
Keith Ellison, Linebacker, Oregon State
   A solid late-round addition, Ellison was pushed into the starting lineup very early after injuries to Takeo Spikes and Angelo Crowell.  Though he initially performed well for a young and inexperienced player, Ellison has only been a marginal starter and would probably be more suited to a backup role.
   Playing on both the weak and strong side, Ellison is a converted safety, known for being effective in coverage, but a liability against the run (see stat line).  Because of his size and the team's conversion to a 3-4 defense, Ellison received less playing time in 2010 and might not fit well into the team's future plans.

Seventh Round: 216th Overall
Terrance Pennington, Offensive Lineman, New Mexico
   Like with Ellison, a rash of injuries forced Pennington into heavy playing time early.
   The inexperienced rookie started the final nine games of 2006 at right tackle for the Bills.  But that was as good as it got for Pennington, as he was cut before the 2007 season (see career stats).  After Buffalo, he spent two years as a backup for the Atlanta Falcons and spent one training camp with the New York Giants.

Seventh Round: 248th Overall
Aaron Merz, Offensive Lineman, California
Typical of most seventh round picks, Merz was only was on the Bills for the 2006 and 2007 seasons.  During that time, he made a total of one start (see career stats).

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