Monday, October 3, 2011

Week 4 Recap: Cincinnati 23, Buffalo 20

Surging Bills fall back to earth with second-half defensive collapse

Bengals running back Cedric
Benson busts through the Bills
defense in the fourth quarter
   The winning streak had to stop at some point.  Buffalo wasn't going to go 16-0 this year.  Still, having that first loss come against the lowly Bengals can't help but leave a bad taste.
   It's doubtful that the Bills will play against another this year offense with less experience, or enter another game so highly favored.  Yet the league's "highest scoring" offense was flat and struggled to put up points all day long.  The defense was extremely sloppy and even seemed overconfident entering the second half.
   The Bills haven't managed a "full" game since Week 1.  Thus far, they have been surviving streaky play by taking advantage of their opponents mistakes and turnovers.  It looked like more of the same on Sunday, before the Bengals refocused at halftime and punched the Bills defense right in the mouth.
   Along with this depressing loss, Cincinnati laid out a decent blueprint for other teams to slow down Buffalo's offense (taking away the short passing lanes).  Coordinators will continue to attack a struggling secondary until the Bills give them a reason not to.
   It was a bad day for the Bills.  But just like the 3-0 start, it's important not to overreact to one loss.  The big test will be whether the Bills can adjust to what their opponents will now be able to see on the gamefilm.

Weekly Observations:

1)  The other team in stripes...
   I am certainly not the type of person that likes to blame the refs for a loss.  And no doubt, the Bills hold plenty of responsiblity for their poor showing on Sunday.  However, the officiating on Sunday was absolutely terrible, and bad enough to have cost Buffalo the game.
   The biggest blunder was the ridiculous "non-catch" by Steve Johnson, taking away what would have been an important Bills first down.  Instead of continuing their drive, draining more of the clock and possibly going up by two scores - the Bills had to punt and give the Bengals another shot. 
   Only a few plays later, Cincinnati tight end Jermaine Gresham hauled in a 25 yard pass on the sidelines.  Replay showed him bobble the ball and step out of bounds before getting two feet down, but nobody (the refs, the Bills or the t.v. crew) seemed to notice.

2)  Stop Fred Jackson, stop the Bills...
   During the first four games, Chan Gailey's strategy has been to lineup Ryan Fitzpatrick in shotgun with four and five receiver sets, then go after the defense with a short passing attack.  But all of their success has started by making opponents respect the running game.
   Jackson was able to make a few nice runs on Sunday.  But as a whole, the offensive line was unable to consistently open holes on the Bengals defense, forcing Buffalo into several 3rd-and-long situations.  Fitzpatrick has struggled when pushed into making throws more than 9-10 yards downfield when defenses are expecting it.
   With their lack of talent, the Bills can't afford to be one-dimensional.  Hopefully, Gailey will make some adjustments and come up with more ways to get Jackson some running room.

3)  Our starting cornerback is becoming a huge liability...
   There was a lot of hope that Leodis McKelvin would finally "get it" this year.  Instead, the former first-round pick has allowed a rookie receiver to put up over a hundred yards on him twice in only four games.
   McKelvin is constantly caught trailing his man, giving up too much room underneath and getting completely turned around on routes.  When he does manage to be in position, he fails to get his eyes to the ball or make a breakup on the pass.  If it wasn't for a bad drop by Chad Ochocinco in Week 3 and overthrow by Andy Dalton on Sunday, his numbers could look even worse on the season.

4)  He hasn't been the only problem...
   Most of the big passing plays in the second half were courtesy of Gresham, who was easily beating coverage by safeties George Wilson and Bryan Scott.  It shouldn't have been a surprise.
   Despite making some big turnovers, both players have struggled all year long at covering tight ends - no matter who they are matching up against.  And this was an area that was supposed to get better after the team let Donte Whitner walk in free agency.

5)  Oh well, let's just call out the whole defense...
   On the offensive side of the ball, Chan Gailey has turned a bunch of late-round picks and undrafted free agents into one of the NFL's most explosive offenses.  Meanwhile, the defensive front seven (which has gotten most of the attention in the last two offseasons) has been extremely underperforming. 
   Tackling was dreadful against the Bengals.  The run defense is better than last year, but still lets up too many big plays.  There is little to no pass rush.  When are youngsters Torrell Troup, Alex Carrington, Arthur Moats, Danny Batton, etc. going to get on the field?  Has Shawne Merriman even played since the pre-season?
   If the Bills want to be a real contender, they better shore up the defense before weather gets bad.

6)  Misfires from the man under center...
   And just when we thought the quarterback controversy was over.
   The Bengals focused on taking away the run and keeping their coverage closer to the line of scrimmage.  Instead of burning the defense over the top, Ryan Fitzpatrick was unable to connect with his receivers on deep throws. 
   Gailey has done a great job of hiding the weak points in Fitzpatrick's game (accuracy, decision-making under pressure).  The league's better defensive coordinators will continue to try exposing those areas.

7)  The worst rule in professional sports...
   Almost ten years ago, the "Tuck Rule" was instrumental in launching the career of Tom Brady and jump-starting the New England Patriots dynasty.  That's the only reason I can figure that the NFL hasn't changed the dumbest rule of all time.
   Any sane person could see that Andy Dalton was not throwing the ball when it was knocked from his hand.  Maybe the refs made the right call based on the rule book.  But they made the wrong call based on pure common sense.

Looking to next week:

   Few teams have been as disappointing in 2011 as the 1-3 Eagles, who loaded up during the offseason with big name free agents.  They might already be looking at this contest as a "must win" to keep in the playoff race.
   Philadelphia has been unable to keep pressure off quarterback Michael Vick, who has already gotten banged up pretty bad (concussion, broken wrist).  With left tackle Jason Peters likely to miss Week 5, this would be a great week for the Bills pass rush to finally get off the ground.
   The Eagles have tons of weapons in the passing game.  Running back LeSean McCoy figures to have a big game catching passes out of the backfield, while receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin will pose troubles against a struggling Bills secondary.
   Buffalo's offense matches up really well against Philadelphia's weak linebackers.  There should be plenty of room for Jackson and the short passing game to get rolling.  Defensive end Trent Cole is also supposed to miss the game, taking a big hit on the pass rush.

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