Showing posts with label Free Agency. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Free Agency. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Front office lacks urgency and desire to become a top team

   Last March, Bills GM Buddy Nix joked with reporters about his inactivity on the free agent market, while the front offices from other teams stayed up well past midnight to work big money deals with agents.
   "They asked me if I was going to be there," said Nix.  "Hell no, I ain't going to be there. I'm going to bed."
   Of course, what Nix meant was that he believes in rebuilding a franchise through the draft, and not through free agency.  But to frustrated sports fans that already question their team's commitment to winning, it was a certainly poor attempt at humor.
   He might as well have said something like: 'You aren't going to get a Bill Belichick-type of effort out of me.  I'm too old to try that hard.'
   More than 16 months after that infamous press conference, the Nix regime remained virtually comatose during the few days of the NFL's free agent frenzy.  While teams all over the NFL snatched up veteran players to help improve their squads, the 4-12 Bills were content in adding a backup quarterback and a wildcat specialist.
   Yes...the team took a legitimate swing at signing Pro Bowl right tackle Tyson Clabo from Atlanta, but lost out in the bidding war, and then didn't bother pursuing anyone else on the market.  A few days later, the Bills almost let linebacker Nick Barnett leave for Detroit without a contract.  Fortunately, the Lions decided to go with Stephen Tulloch instead, giving the Bills Barnett by default.
   And with that...the Bills have (apparently) finished their shopping spree.
   As I write this article, the pathetic situation at offensive tackle is exactly the same as last year.  Chris Kelsay and Aaron Maybin are slated 1-2 on the depth chart at outside linebacker.  Our tight ends are still a waste of roster space.  Depth is still a concern across the board.  And oh yeah, the Bills are still more than $20 million under the salary cap.
   You can't tell me that out of the hundreds of veterans on the market, only 4 or 5 could have been worthwhile additions to a team that finished 4-12 last year.
   Now don't get me wrong.  I like that Nix apparently has a plan and that he's willing to stick with it.  He says he wants to build the team with young draftees and isn't willing to overspend on the big name free agents.
   But still, it's hard not to look at this front office without sensing an attitude of apathy and laziness.  Quite simply - nobody seems to be in a hurry for the Bills to get better. 
   Other teams (see New England, Philadelphia, Green Bay) are experts at managing every cent of the salary cap, stockpiling draft picks, getting maximum value on every single trade, aggressively pursuing the top free agents and exhausting all possibilities for improving their rosters.  It's a "win at all costs" mentality.
   The Bills are constantly caught in the "wait for next year" mentality - refusing to re-sign players for their market value (Paul Posluszny), relying on sub-par talent at key positions (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Demetrius Bell) and hoping for big contributions from unproven youngsters (Torrell Troup, Arthur Moats).
   The front office claims that drafting is essential in their rebuilding process.  But even with that, they don't seem to make the effort that some teams do to obtain more of those valuable picks.  For example:
  • Last year, the Bills bumbled around for a month into the season before getting a measly fourth round pick from Seattle for Marshawn Lynch.  Rumors after the season suggested that New Orleans was willing to give them a third rounder, but Buffalo never bothered calling them to make an offer.
  • During the 2010 draft, the team raced to the podium to select C.J. Spiller and later Torrell Troup, instead of using some of its time to field potential offers.  Other teams sit on their pick for a little while, just in case they could add another pick or two by moving down.   
   Nobody expected Nix to turn the team around overnight.  But from the outside looking in, he seems to be content in the idea of this rebuilding taking 3-4 seasons (maybe more) before the team is capable of even contending for a playoff spot.    
   Rebuilding - if done correctly and aggressively - doesn't have to take years and years.  There are numerous examples of it being done in a single season.  Last year, Tampa Bay jumped from 3-13 to 10-6.  In 2008, division rivals Miami and New York improved from records of 1-15 and 4-12 respectively to records of 11-5 and 9-7.
   Buffalo went backwards in the standings in its first season of rebuilding.  And after it's second offseason of roster moves, I don't see a significant improvement in talent from the days when Marv Levy and Dick Jauron ran the show.  Even more concerning, is that I don't think our front office is the slightest bit worried about it.
   The situation makes me think of watching training camp.
   Lots of football players come into the league with skills and talents, but they don't have the drive and desire to ever reach their full potential.  They become the Mike Williams and Aaron Maybins of the world.
   I get the same vibe from the executives at One Bills Drive.  I'm just not convinced they "want it" as bad as the other teams.  And until I get that sense, it's going to be really hard to get excited about our team.

Monday, August 1, 2011

Past winners prove free agency can be effective

   I've often heard the argument that "successful teams build through the draft."  Most of the time, that statement is in defense to a team not spending big in free agency.
   After all - they point out - Daniel Snyder and the Washington Redskins spend money like crazy, but haven't turned it into success on the field.  Meanwhile, the Colts and Steelers rarely sign outside free agents, but continue to make the playoffs year after year.
   But the truth is...there are many examples of recent NFL teams parlaying their aggressive signings and trades for veterans into Super Bowl success (New England and New Orleans for example).  And there are lots of cheap spenders choose to focus on building solely through the draft, but have nothing to show for it (Cincinnati and Buffalo).
Drew Brees was an amazing
free agent pickup for the Saints
   Of course, it all starts with the draft.  Impact players at certain key positions - like quarterback and left tackle - are tough to find and are almost never available in free agency (unless age and injuries are a significant factor).  And if a team drafts poorly - relying mostly on veteran pickups, their overall roster tends to age quickly and any success they experience is over pretty fast (see the 2003-2004 Oakland Raiders).
   But that doesn't mean teams should be content to ignore the free agent market.  Not every veteran player is Albert Haynesworth.  There are always solid pickups available that will end up being well worth the money, will fill holes along the roster, will add leadership/depth, and will ultimately make the team better.
   So below, I've assembled a short list of veteran pickups (either through free agency or trade) that made a significant impact on Super Bowl winners from over the last several years.  As you will see, some teams made big moves.  Others relied on smaller additions.  But none of them sat on their checkbooks during the offseason - relying simply on the draft to magically turn them into champions:

Green Bay Packers (2010 Champions)
   Top Addition:  Charles Woodson (CB)
   Signed to a six-year, $52 million contract in 2006, following a very successful period with the Oakland Raiders.  He has made the Pro Bowl three times as a Packer and won Defensive Player of the Year in 2009.
   Other Additions:  Ryan Pickett (DL),  Ryan Grant (RB)

New Orleans Saints (2009 Champions)
   Top Addition:  Drew Brees (QB)
   Coming off a shoulder operation, few teams wanted to take a chance.  The Saints got him for six years, $60 million in 2006.  Since then, he's made three Pro Bowls and become one of the league's top passers.
   Other Additions:  Jeremy Shockey (TE),  Jonathan Vilma (LB),  Scott Fujita (LB), 
Jabari Greer (CB),  Darren Sharper (S)

Pittsburgh Steelers (2005 and 2008 Champions)
   Top Addition:  Jerome Bettis (RB)
   Known for building through the draft, the Steelers were willing to trade down to obtain a top running back.  Bettis was the team's starting back for a decade and made four Pro Bowls during that period.
   Other Additions:  James Farrior (LB),  Jeff Hartings (OL),  Kimo Von Oelhoffen  (DL)

New York Giants (2007 Champions)
   Top Addition:  Plaxico Burress (WR)
   The Giants needed a top passing option for Eli Manning and Burress was a great fit.  Before his troubles with the law, he was an endzone magnet that caught the game-winning touchdown in the Super Bowl.
   Other Additions:  Sam Madison (CB),  Kareem McKenzie (OL)

New England Patriots (2002, 2004 and 2005 Champions)
   Top Addition:  (tie) Randy Moss (WR),  Wes Welker (WR),  Corey Dillon (RB)
   The top franchise of the last decade has also been one of the most active in obtaining veteran talent.  Corey Dillon was the missing piece that helped them win Super Bowl XXXIX.  Randy Moss and Wes Welker were the main components on the team that want 16-0 during the regular season.
   Other Additions:  Rodney Harrison (S),  Junior Seau (LB),  Mike Vrabel (LB), 
Adalius Thomas (LB),  Donte Stallworth (WR),  Keith Traylor (DL),  Antowain Smith (RB), 
Sammy Morris (RB),   Terrell Buckley (CB)

Free Agency Update: Barnett added to LB corps

   After opening free agency with very little activity, the Bills finally made a significant free agent signing on Sunday morning, adding veteran linebacker Nick Barnett.  His contact was for three years at $12 million.  The 30-year-old has spent his career with the Green Bay Packers and is expected to fill one of the starting inside linebacker positions.

   In a much lower profile move, Buffalo also claimed Lionel Dotson off waivers.  The defensive lineman was a former seventh round pick by the Miami Dolphins.

   This weekend, the Bills also finished signing their 2011 draft class by inking third round pick Kelvin Sheppard.  He played inside linebacker for LSU.

Previous moves:
Additions:         Tyler Thigpen, QB;   Brad Smith, WR/QB/KR  
Losses:              Paul Posluszny, LB

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Free Agency Update: Bills re-sign Florence, add returner

   Closing out the first day of (unofficial) free agency, the Bills agreed to terms with one of their outstanding free agents.  Starting cornerback Drayton Florence agreed to a contract worth $15 million for three years.

   On Thursday afternoon, Buffalo added versatile player Brad Smith, who spent his previous five years with the New York Jets.  The deal was reportedly worth $15 million for four years.  Smith is mostly known for his explosive return skills and talents for the Wildcat formation.  He could be used as a wide reciver, running back or even third quarterback.

  Seventh round pick Michael Jasper (DT, Bethel University) was the team's first draft pick to sign.  Terms of the contract were not yet available.

   The team also announced the signing of 19 undrafted rookie free agents.  They include: Danny Aiken (LS, Virginia), Kamar Aiken (WR, Central Florida), Rajiric Coleman (S, Utah State), Domonic Cook (DB, Buffalo), Robert Eddins (LB, Ball State), Reid Forrest (P, Washington State), Sidney Glover (S, West Virginia), Chris Hazley (K, Virginia Tech), Brandon Hicks (LB, Florida), Brad Jefferson (LB, Georgia Tech), T.J. Langley (DE, Arkansas Tech), Loyce Means (CB, Houston), Doyle Miller (CB, Nevada), Emmanuel Moody (RB, Florida), Joshua Nesbitt (QB/S, Georgia Tech), Zach Pianalto (TE, North Carolina), Michael Switzer (G, Ball State), Vai Taua (RB, Nevada), Isaiah Thompson (OT, Houston).

Previous moves:
Additions:          Tyler Thigpen, QB
Losses:               Paul Posluszny, LB

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Free Agency Update: Poz signs with Jacksonville

   Linebacker Paul Posluszny has reportedly agreed to terms with the Jacksonville Jaguars on a six-year contract, worth $42 million.  He has been the Bills starting middle/inside linebacker for most of the last three years.

   Meanwhile, Tyler Thigpen has signed a three-year deal to be the Bills backup quarterback.  There are no reports on a dollar amount yet.  Thigpen spent the last two years in Miami and has ties to Chan Gailey.

Monday, July 18, 2011

Free Agency Watch (Part 3: Linebackers)

   The Bills were really bad at a lot of positions last year.  Nowhere was that more glaring than at linebacker.  
   Switching from the 4-3 to a 3-4 scheme forced a lot of players to learn new positions, and unfortunately most were not up to the task.  When the dust cleared, Buffalo had given up almost 170 yards rushing per game (worst in the NFL), while managing only 27 sacks.  More than a year after the switch, the team is still filled with undersized inside linebackers and outside rushers more suited as down linemen.

Current Roster:
(Outside): Shawne Merriman, Chris Kelsay, Arthur Moats, Aaron Maybin, Reggie Torbor, Danny Batten, (Inside): Paul Posluzny, Andra Davis, Kelvin Sheppard, Chris White, Akin Ayodele, Keith Ellison

   Although an upgrade is absolutely necessary, the team must first decide whether it's worth re-signing Paul Posluszny.  He might not be a perennial Pro Bowler, but letting him go would be disastrous for an already weak unit.  A lot is also riding on whether Shawne Merriman can return to his pre-steroids/injury form.
   The Bills could get a big boost by the development of youngsters like Arthur Moats, Kelvin Sheppard and pending-bust Aaron Maybin.  But at this point, there are no promises any will become an impact player.
  If the Bills are truly going to run a hybrid defense, it opens up a lot of possibilities for free agent signings.  But the front office can't just look for bodies to rotate.  They need impact players that will get to the quarterback and make plays in the run game.  With guys like David Harris, Tamba Hali, LaMarr Woodley and Chad Greenway already getting the franchise tag from their current teams, that's going to be very hard to find.

Matt Roth, Cleveland
   Out of all the defenders on the market, Roth is probably the best fit for the Bills.  The 28 year old has played 3-4 linebacker and 4-3 defensive end in the NFL, and done both effectively.  He's known for contantly bringing pressure from the edge (20 career sacks) and is more than solid in the run game.

James Anderson, Carolina
   In his fifth season, Anderson had a breakout campaign, racking up 130 tackles. 3.5 sacks and two forced fumbles. He's mostly played on as a strongside 4-3 linebacker, but could likely flourish in a hybrid attack. The Bills could definitely use the 27-year-old's run-stopping  and playmaking skills.

Stephen Tulloch, Tennessee
   When a guy racks up over 280 tackles in two seasons, he deserves some consideration for a team that ranked dead-last in run defense.  If he could adapt to a 3-4 scheme (he is a little undersized), he would pair very nicely with Poz in the middle.

Barrett Ruud, Tampa Bay
   Another 4-3 middle linebacker, there is a good chance the Buccaneers will end up slapping Ruud, 28, with the franchise tag.  If they don't, teams will have a chance to sign a guy with four straight 100-plus tackle seasons.  Despite his impact play ability, Ruud is a very similar player as Posluszny, making a lot of his stops downfield.

Manny Lawson, San Francisco
   As a former first round pick (2006), Lawson has been a bit of a disappointment, never fully developing the pass rushing skills he had in college.  He's still a young (27) and solid 3-4 outside linebacker with great talent.  He might benefit from a change in scenary.

Takeo Spikes, San Francisco
   Bills fans probably have fond memories of T.K.O. from back in 2003-2004, before injuries took their toll.  Now 34 and healthy, Spikes is having a resurgence (109 tackles in 2010).  Age is obviously a factor, but it would be nice to see him back in a Buffalo jersey.

Quincy Black, Tampa Bay
   He doesn't put up big numbers, but he's an important cog of the Buccaneers defense.  As a strongside 4-3 backer, Black, 27, has proved to be an excellent run stopper and even good in coverage.

Friday, July 15, 2011

Free Agency Watch (Part 2: Offensive Tackles)

   The Bills offensive line exceeded expectations last year. 
   Many observers thought Buffalo would field the worst unit in the league.  Instead, an inexperienced and minimally-talented group was somewhere between adequate and average.
   With Eric Wood (expected to move to center) and Andy Levitre manning one guard spot, Buffalo at least has some potential on the interior.  But if the Bills front office is serious about making the team a contender anytime soon, there have to be some serious upgrades at offensive tackle.

Current Roster:
Demetrius Bell, Erik Pears, Mansfield Wrotto, Cordero Howard, Ed Wang, Chris Hairston

   It's scary to think Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey would be satisfied to enter the season with this weak group, but they've done it before.
   There might have to be a bidding war with other teams and some decent contracts drawn up, but the Bills will likely have a handful of very good free agent blockers available on both sides of the line.   Only time will tell if they try to actually land one of them.

Left Tackles:

Doug Free, Dallas
   The Cowboys gambled last season by cutting Flozell Adams and promoting the unproven Free to start on the blindside.  He did not disappoint, proving to be great at run blocking and very good at pass blocking.  Dallas is expected to make a strong effort to re-sign the 27 year old.  If they can't, he'll probably be the most pursued lineman available.

Jared Gaither, Baltimore
   If not for injury concerns (back) that have de-railed his young career, Gaither would likely be at the top of this list.  The Bills were once rumored to be interested in trading for him, but backed off the pricetag of a second-round pick.  When healthy, the 25-year-old tackle can be very good and certainly has Pro-Bowl potential.

Jermon Bushrod, New Orleans
   Although he's been labeled as inconsistent - especialy in the run game, Bushrod would certainly be an upgrade for the Bills on the left side.  And at 26 years old, with only two years of starting under his belt, there might still be some room for improvement.  The Saints are expected to try bringing him back, but they've already invested a lot of money in their offensive line.

Jammal Brown, Washington
   Certainly not a long term solution, the 30-year-old would bring some much-needed veteran experience to the Bills and could play on either side of the line.  Despite being a two-time Pro Bowler, Brown has dealt with a lot of injuries.  He struggled early last season, but started regaining form as the year wore on.

Matt Light, New England
   Once one of the NFL's best, Light, 33, is clearly past his prime.  He's still a good run blocker, but has started struggling handling pass rushers.  Like with Brown, Buffalo could benefit from his presence and knowledge - while hoping the 3 time Pro Bowler still has something left in the tank.

Right Tackles

Willie Colon, Pittsburgh
   Considered one of the best right tackles in the league, Colon missed all of 2010 with a torn Achilles.  Since they were able to make the Super Bowl without him, Pittsburgh might decide he isn't worth a big contract.  If they don't re-sign him, another team will get a versatile blocker with serious Pro-Bowl talent...assuming he also returns to healthy form.

Marshall Yanda, Baltimore
   Yanda is expected to be one of the Ravens top priorities when operations resume. If he hits the open market, the 26 year old is probably more suited to play guard. But he did a very good job filling in when Baltimore was forced to reshuffle the lineup because of injuries. The Bills could certainly find a place for his skills.

Tyson Clabo, Atlanta
   After being named to his first Pro-Bowl appearance last season, Clabo will probably command top dollar on the open market.  He's known as a physical player and solid in both the pass-run game.  But at 30 years old, one has to wonder if 2010 was an abberation.  It's likely his value will be a little inflated.

Damien Woody, New York Jets
   A few years ago, you would be hard-pressed to find a better lineman than Woody.  But now 33 years old and coming off back-to-back major injuries (knee, Achilles), he might not have anything left.  Still, as stated earlier, the Bills lack a veteran presence and could benefit from him in the locker room for a year or two.

Others:
   When a team is lacking in talent and experience like the Bills, lots of players could provide starting help. 
   Denver's Ryan Harris is a young and solid right tackle with potential to get better.  Seattle's Sean Locklear is a strong pass blocker that could play on either side.

Monday, July 11, 2011

Free Agency Watch (Part 1: Tight Ends)

   Many argue whether teams are better off rebuilding through the draft or free agency.
   The truth is...both are extremely important.  With the NFL and players finally talking about a resolution to the lockout (sides are targeting a July 21 start to the season and July 28 kickoff to free agency), there is plenty of unsigned-veteran talent that could seriously upgrade the Bills current roster.
   At the present time, Buffalo has shown full support for Ryan Fitzpatrick as the starting quarterback.  The team is overstocked at wide receiver and running back is considered a strength.  The interior of the offensive line appears solid, while the draft addressed potential holes in the defensive backfield and at one d-line spot.
   But if the 2011 season were to start tomorrow, the Bills still have some serious weak spots that need to be taken care of.  The offensive tackles lack experience and starting talent.  Tight end is currently a waste of space on the football field.  The defense still lacks a serious pass rush and the team remains soft in the middle against the run.
   Over the next two weeks, I want to focus on some of the players that could help the Bills become more competitive, starting with tight end.

Current Roster: 
David Martin, Shawn Nelson, Scott Chandler, Mike Caussin, Jonathan Stupar

  To call this group "underwhelming" would probably be giving them too much credit.  None of these guys are legitimate threats as pass catchers and none are better than average as blockers. 
   In all of his years as an NFL coach/coordinator, Chan Gailey has preferred to see his tight ends block most of the time.  In fact, the only season a tight end ever caught more than 35 passes for Gailey was during his only year as offensive coordinator for Kansas City, when he inherited a roster with Tony Gonzalez.
   Regardless, having another receiving threat could only help an offense that finished near the bottom of the NFL...again.  This year's crop of free agents looked exceptional, but has dwindled in the last couple months.  With Owen Daniels re-signing with Houston, Marcedes Lewis franchised by Jacksonville and Jeremy Shockey joining Carolina, I figure there are only two starting-caliber options left scheduled to hit the market...Zach Miller and Kevin Boss.

Zach Miller, Oakland
   Easily the best option at this position, Miller is equally good at run blocking and striking fear into opposing defenses as a pass catcher.  And at only 26 years old, he also seems to be getting better each season and would be an excellent addition to the Bills roster.
   As a Pro Bowler and the team's most consistent offensive weapon, the big question is whether the Raiders will be willing to let him walk (they might not have the ability to squeeze him under the salary cap).  He's likely to command a pretty hefty contract.
  
Kevin Boss, New York Giants
   If the Raiders re-sign Miller (or if the Bills are unwilling to shell out the cash), Boss would be a very good consolation prize.  Another multi-dimensional player with skills as a receiver and blocker, Boss stepped on the scene a few years ago when the Giants got rid of Jeremy Shockey.
   Despite competing with several pass catching talents on New York's roster, the 27 year old managed to rack up over 500 yards and five touchdowns each of the last two years.

Others:
   If the Bills aren't able to bring in Miller or Boss, they will have to settle for a one-dimensional player - probably one that lacks the ability to play 3-downs and is more suited as a rotational role.
   Bo Scaife had some good years for Tennessee with Vince Young under center, and is a decent blocker.  But as a receiver, he's nothing more than an occasional dump-off option.
   Daniel Fells (St. Louis) and Dante Rosario (Carolina) have also shown talent as pass catchers, but wouldn't be huge upgrades over the Bills current group.

Saturday, June 11, 2011

Should the Bills re-sign: Drayton Florence?

   Historically, the Bills have been a revolving door at cornerback.
   Talents like Nate Odomes, Jeff Burris, Thomas Smith, Antoine Winfield and Nate Clements have come and gone over the years - only to be replaced by younger defensive backs with lower price tags and less starting experience.  Only time will tell if Drayton Florence can be added to that list.
   After a disastrous season in Jacksonville, few expected Florence to be a big contributor for the Bills when he signed as a free agent in 2009.  He still isn't a Pro-Bowl caliber player, but Florence has managed to start 29 of Buffalo's last 32 games at cornerback - and done a decent job at it.  Some would argue that he's been the Bills best defensive back since joining the team.
   Exceeding expectations has a price tag, though.  And the Bills will probably have to shell out a decent contract to retain his future services.

Size:            6'0, 195 lbs.
Position:     Cornerback
Selected:     2003 draft by San Diego, second round (46th overall)
                    Free agent pickup by Buffalo in 2009
Age:            30 years old (turns 31 in December)



   In 2010, Florence was the team's biggest playmaker on defense, grabbing three interceptions (a team high), defensing 15 passes, forcing a fumble and scoring a touchdown.  His play helped the Bills finish third in the NFL against the pass - although that could also be attributed to opposing teams not needing to throw much.
   For a cornerback, Florence has good size and is very physical when jamming receivers at the line.  However, his aggressive play sometimes results in defensive holding and pass interference penalties.  His age (30) could play a factor in what the Bills are willing to offer him, but Florence has managed to stay clear of injuries during his career so far.
   Although Buffalo has several other talented corners on the roster, there also lots of questions - which could ultimately force their hand with Florence.  
   Coaches would love to see former first round pick Leodis McKelvin finally reach his potential and snatch a starting job.  But there is no guarantee that will ever happen.  On the other side of the field, Terrence McGee hasn't been healthy in almost two full years, and he may never return to his previous form.  The Bills also drafted Aaron Williams in the early second round based on the belief that he has starting potential.  But it could be another year or two before he's ready.  Reggie Corner is more suited to playing against slot receivers.  Ashton Yobouty is also a free agent, and has only been a fringe player at best.
   If the Bills want to make a big splash, several cornerbacks are available who would be significant upgrades at the position.
   Many believe Nnamdi Asomugha is the best cornerback in the league, and he is unlikely to be re-signed by Oakland.  If Cincinnati lets him walk, Johnathan Joseph is also a Pro-Bowl level player.  Others decent options on the market include Ike Taylor, Antonio Cromartie, Chris Carr, Richard Marshall and Carlos Rogers.
   Florence originally signed a two-year contract with the Bills for $6.6 million.  It's highly unlikely they will get that kind of bargain again.  When free agency resumes, he could command a contract of closer to $5 million per year.

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Should the Bills re-sign: Donte Whitner?

   For Donte Whitner, life as a Buffalo has always been an uphill climb. 
   Considered a late first/early second prospect by most football analysts when he was drafted in 2006, Whitner never had a realistic chance of living up to the expectations of a Top 10 pick.   For his critics, anything short of "elite" play could ever justify him being taken that high.
   But does that mean Whitner is a complete bust?  Does that mean Buffalo should let him walk in free agency without even trying to retain his services?
   We all know the team should have drafted Pro-Bowl tackle Haloti Ngata instead.  We all know Whitner lacks the talent of top NFL safeties like Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu.  But that doesn't mean Whitner can't be a contributor.
  
Size:            5'10, 208 lbs.
Position:      Safety
Selected:     2006 draft, first round (eighth overall)
Age:            25 years old (turns 26 in July)





   Like every player, Whitner has strengths and he has weaknesses. 
   It's hard to ignore a player that racks up 140 tackles in a season, which Whitner did in 2010 thanks in part to the team's switch to a 3-4 defensive scheme.  But as solid as he's been against the run, Whitner has struggled just as badly in coverage.  His Week 7 performance last year against Todd Heap was as awful as they come.
   Critics often say Whitner's tackle numbers are inflated because of how poor the Bills front seven has been.  But could just anybody play as well in the same role?  Safeties are normally considered the last line of defense.  When they miss a tackle, it usually means a touchdown for the other team.  We know Whitner at least has the ability to wrap ballcarriers up in the middle of the field.
   When it comes to impact plays, Whitner has been virtually absent since coming to the NFL.  After five seasons, he's only managed five interceptions, three forced fumbles and 1.5 sacks.  Comparing those numbers to the Bills other starting safety, Jairus Byrd already has ten interceptions, three forced fumbles and a sack - in only two years.
   Publicly, the Bills haven't shown much interest in bringing Whitner back, but there is always a chance that could change.  If they do decide to move on, backup George Wilson played very well in 2009 when Whitner was knocked out with an ankle injury.  Many believe Wilson is the better player anyway and deserves a shot at the starting job.  On draft day, Buffalo also selected Da'Norris Searcy in the fourth round, giving them additional depth if Whitner ends up walking.
   The free agent market is also stocked full of good safeties, many who could be an upgrade over Whitner.  San Diego's Eric Weddle is considered one of the league's best, although he's played more as a free safety.  The Bills could also look at Dawan Landry of Baltimore, Danieal Manning of Chicago, Quintin Mikell of Philadelphia, or even Michael Huff of Oakland.
   Whitner's rookie contract was $29 million for five years.  Reports say he's looking for around $7 million per season on his next deal - although with so many safety options on the market, he might be forced to drop those demands.

See previous article: Should the Bills re-sign Paul Posluszny?

Monday, June 6, 2011

Should the Bills re-sign: Paul Posluszny?

   Most people think the Bills did a pretty good job during this year's draft.  Assuming the NFL gets back to work soon, the front office still has plenty of work to do in free agency if they are hoping to be more competitive in 2011.
   While much of the focus is on new free agents the Bills could bring in, we shouldn't forget about those current players that need to be re-signed.  As notoriously bad as they've been in spotting college talent, Buffalo has been equally horrific at letting veteran talent get away.
   This week, I'm going to shed a spotlight some of the Bills unrestricted free agents and whether they are worth the cost to bring back.  The first will be on fan-favorite, Paul Posluszny.


Size:                 6'1, 238 lbs
Position:           Linebacker
Selected:          2007 draft, second round (34th overall)
Age:                 26 years old (turns 27 in October)

  
  

   "Poz" is certainly a player that splits the opinions of people who watch the Bills every weekend.
   Some believe he's a consistently good player that always seems to be near the ball, racking up tons of tackles despite a weak cast around him.  Others say he's a liability, playing a primary position (inside linebacker) on one of the worst running defenses in the league.
   Since entering the NFL, the biggest concern about Posluszny has been with injuries, costing him close to 20 games during his first four seasons.  He's broken the same arm twice and suffered injuries to his groin and right knee.  When looking at a contract extension, it should be considered that health concerns generally get worse with age.
   On the production end, Posluszny reached the 150-tackle barrier for the first time in 2010.  He's crossed 100 tackles each of the last three seasons, despite missing time with injuries.  Similar to the man he was drafted to replace (London Fletcher), Posluszny has often been criticized for letting ballcarriers come to him, rather than making plays closer to the line.  His big playmaking ability is also questionable, notching only three sacks and four interceptions in his career so far.
   Posluszny has shown some versatility in various defensive schemes, playing equally well in both the 4-3 and 3-4 formats.  Because of his size and talent level, Poz is probably more suited to play the middle in a 3-4, which figures to be the Bills main setup in 2011.  He also proved he could handle the outside when coaches started switching things mid-season last year.
   Despite his shortcomings, it's pretty clear that Poz remains the best inside linebacker currently on the Bills roster.  If the Bills were to let him go, that would leave them with only Andra Davis, Reggie Torbor, Chris White and rookie Kelvin Sheppard.  For a team looking to get better, they should be closing holes instead of opening them.
   With David Harris franchised by the Jets, there are only a couple potential replacements on the free agent market.  Stephen Tulloch, of the Titans, would basically be a lateral movement.  The Chargers' Kevin Burnett would probably be a better pass rusher, but a downgrade overall.  Posluszny is head and shoulders above everyone else scheduled to hit free agency.
   Both the Bills front office and Poz have expressed interest in re-signing.  But as usual, a major factor will be money.  Posluszny's rookie contract made him a total of  $4.75 million in four years, combined.  On the open market, he's expected to command closer to $5 million per year.