The Andrew Luck Sweepstakes: (Pre-Season Edition)

In worst-case scenario, Bills could finally land top QB  

   For even the most optimistic (and gullible) fans in Bills nation, it's already becoming pretty clear that 2011 is being setup as another lost season.
   Sure, whenever they are answering reporters or responding to angry fans, Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey claim they are trying to field the best team possible.  But all signs point otherwise.
   After sitting on their hands during most of free agency, the front office quickly traded away veteran receiver Lee Evans for a mid-round draft pick.  Despite the glaring holes on the offensive line, they won't even sign a temporary stopgap.

Andrew Luck,
quarterback, Stanford

   Whether fans support the way Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey are reshaping the team for the future, it seems that "right now" they should be preparing for another painful and frustrating season - followed by another top draft pick in April 2012.
  
   And maybe that won't be so bad.
   After all, expected to be sitting atop the 2012 draft board is Stanford's Andrew Luck - widely considered by scouts to be the best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning left school. 
   If those experts are correct about his potential, Luck could end up turning his new NFL team into a 10-15 year playoff contender.  All that team has to do to secure his services is finish dead-last amongst the 32 other franchises this season.
   Now, I'm not suggesting that the Bills tank on purpose, or that fans should hope for them to lose on Sundays.  What I'm saying is...there could be a positive side to losing this year.
   Consider Steve Johnson's infamous drop in overtime against the Steelers last year.  If he makes the catch, the Bills pull out an exciting upset - yet ultimately pointless win against a Super Bowl contender.  By ending the season with a 5-11 record, Buffalo gets a lower draft pick and misses on the chance to nab Marcell Dareus.
   So if the Bills are still 2-3 years away from competing for the playoffs, why not hope for the best?  Even if they miss out on Luck, quarterbacks Matt Barkley of USC and Landry Jones of Oklahoma should be excellent consolation prizes next spring (though they might also be gone in the top 3-10 picks).
   With that in mind, I've assembled a list of NFL teams that Buffalo will probably have to leapfrog in order to win the "Suck for Luck" sweepstakes.  I've considered a number of factors, including:

• Each team's current quarterback situation, including the player's age
• The chances, based on past performance and schedule, of that team losing enough to get a top draft pick

   Based on those factors, I figure that eight franchises (not including Buffalo) will have a good to great chance of taking Luck or one of the top quarterbacks in the 2012 NFL Draft. 
   Depending on how the season goes along, I plan on updating this list frequently as the year progresses.

Teams with a very high chance of drafting a QB in 2012

1.  Denver Broncos  (play Week 16 at home):   The Bills and Broncos are very similar teams.  Both finished 4-12 last season.  Both have overachieving quarterbacks with average-level talent.  And both used high draft picks last year to upgrade the defense.  Denver's new front office tried trading Kyle Orton in the offseason and is doing everything in it's power to distance itself from Tim Tebow.  Quarterback figures to be atop their shopping list come April.

2.  Washington Redskins (play Week 8 at home):   On paper, few teams figure to be worse than the Redskins, who finished last season 6-10 and broke up much of the roster.  Starting quarterback will be a battle between John Beck and Rex Grossman, which really says it all.  Washington also plays six games against its brutal NFC East rivals. 

3.  Seattle Seahawks:   After consecutive seasons of 4-12 and 5-11, the rebuilding Seahawks took advantage of a pathetic division and scraped into the playoffs with a losing record.  A year later, the division looks much tougher and Seattle hasn't added much talent.  Their quarterback situation is pathetic, with Tarvaris Jackson scheduled to start and Charlie Whitehurst nipping on his heels. 

4.  Miami Dolphins (play Week 11 on the road, Week 15 at home):   Despite finishing 7-9 the last two seasons, our longtime division rival has all the warning signs of a team ready for a massive free-fall.  Top executive Bill Parcells has abandoned ship.  Head coach Tony Sparano is on the hot seat and could be canned by mid-season.  Chad Henne is clearly not the answer at quarterback.  No matter how bad the Bills are, there is a legitimate chance they won't be the worst team in the AFC East.

5.  Oakland Raiders (play Week 2 at home):   One of the few NFL franchises that makes Buffalo's front office appear intelligent.  The Raiders improved dramatically in 2011, posting an 8-8 record - but then decided to blow everything up and start over.  They have a new head coach and lost their best player on offense (tight end Zach Miller) and defense (cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha).  The only constant is the unimpressive Jason Campbell at quarterback.

Teams with a somewhat decent chance of drafting a QB in 2012

6.  Cincinnati Bengals (play Week 4 on the road):   Technically, the Bengals already drafted their quarterback of the future with second-round pick Andy Dalton.  But with such a young squad, there is a good chance the team could be worse than last season's 4-12 record.  If Dalton fails to impress, or if head coach Marvin Lewis is fired - Cincinnati could be hard pressed to pass on Luck.

7.  Cleveland Browns:   No doubt, Colt McCoy silenced some critics and played pretty well in his rookie season.  But the Browns have finished a pathetic 5-11 two years in a row, and McCoy will have to prove really quickly that he's the long-term answer at quarterback.  If not, the team might push him to a backup spot and draft someone with one of two 2012 first round picks..

8. San Francisco 49ers:   Like the Bengals, the 49ers spent a high second-round pick on a quarterback in Colin Kaepernick. And talent-wise, the team is much better than last year's 6-10 record. But don't forget, Jim Harbaugh also coached Luck at Stanford. If he has a chance to get him in the pros, I doubt he would pass up the chance.  

Teams with a low chance of drafting a QB in 2012

9.  Kansas City Chiefs (play Week 1 on the road):   The 10-6 Chiefs appear to be a team on the rise.  Still, they have a much tougher schedule in 2011 and I've seen worse teams bottom out.  If so, quarterback Matt Cassel is certainly replaceable.  

10.  Tennessee Titans (play Week 13 at home):   Along with breaking in a new coach, the 6-10 Titans could start the season without offensive star Chris Johnson.  But even if they struggle, Tennessee already used the #8 overall pick in 2011 to take quarterback Jake Locker.

11. Minnesota Vikings:   See above, Tennessee.  The Vikings are clearly in a full-blown rebuilding mode, but it's unlikely they go for another quarterback after spending a first (#12 overall) on Christian Ponder in 2011.

12.  Jacksonville Jaguars:   See above, Tennessee and Minnesota.  The Jaguars might still be able to contend for a playoff spot, and drafted Blaine Gabbert at #10 overall as their quarterback of the future.  

Teams with very low chance of drafting a QB in 2012

13.  Chicago Bears:   The Bears finished 11-5 and won their division, so they would need a steep drop-off.  They also invested a lot to obtain Jay Cutler three years ago - although that playoff loss might have damaged their confidence in him.

14.  Detroit Lions:   They look like one of the NFL's top young offenses and could compete for a playoff spot.  But if Matthew Stafford gets hurt again, the staff might be forced to look elsewhere.

15.  Arizona Cardinals:   After paying a king's ransom to get Kevin Kolb under center, the Cardinals are hoping to return to the playoff race - and take themselves out of the running for a quarterback for the time being.

16.  Dallas Cowboys (play Week 10 on the road):   Even in bottoming out last year, Dallas is still one of the NFL's most talented squads.  He hasn't won a playoff game yet, but they seem to be comfortable with Tony Romo under center.

17.  Indianapolis Colts:   The only reason the Colts are this high is because of Peyton Manning's neck.  If he misses significant time in 2011, the team will certainly struggle and might have reason to grab their QB of the future.

18.  Houston Texans:   Quarterback Matt Shaub has been a great pickup for them.  It's the defense that has been keeping them from securing a playoff spot - and possibly more.  

19.  Carolina Panthers:   No matter how bad Cam Newton struggles in his rookie campaign, the Panthers cannot afford to take another quarterback at the top of the draft.  They have to focus on other positions.  Right?

Teams with almost no chance of drafting a QB in 2012

>>   New England, Philadelphia, New Orleans  -  These teams have aging superstars at the quarterback position, but will most likely be picking too late to secure a top prospect to replace them.

>>  Pittsburgh, San Diego, New York Giants, Green Bay  -  These teams have top quarterbacks who are just reaching their primes.  They won't need to find a replacement for a few years.

>>  Atlanta, St. Louis, New York Jets, Baltimore, Tampa Bay  -  These teams invested top picks during the last 3-4 years and are very high on the potential of their young passers.  They figure to be stars for years to come.

Dareus could be start of something special

   When teams struggle as long as the Bills have, it's easy to see even the smallest baby steps as major progress.
   Unfortunately, the Bills have spent most of the last decade in a virtual standstill. 
   They replace one bad coach with an equally bad coach.  They fail miserably with high draft picks.  They let the few veteran contributers on the team walk in free agency, then settle for marginal talent to fill in the roster holes.

Marcell Dareus at Alabama

   But for the first time in a very long time, I think the Buffalo Bills have taken a significant step forward.  And the reason is Marcell Dareus.
   Scanning the NFL, there are a few things that the top teams have in common.  The first is a great quarterback.  The second is at least a couple "special" players.  I'm talking about guys that make opposing coaches lose sleep on Saturday night.  Guys that single-handedly force drastic changes in the gameplan.  Guys that make big plays when everything is on the line in the fourth quarter.
   It's no secret that Buffalo has suffered from a serious lack of talent.  No impact players on offense.  No difference makers on defense.
   Instead, the Bills have gained a reputation around the league as a team full of hard-working players with average talent.  Although their effort often keeps matchups close until the second half, the Bills lack the playmakers to pull games out against the NFL's good teams.
   Even when selecting in the top half of the draft, the Bills have been unable to nab these kinds of players.  CJ Spiller, Aaron Maybin, Leodis McKelvin, Marshawn Lynch, Donte Whitner... the list goes on and on.
   But with Dareus, quite a few experts believe the Bills were able to emerge with the best overall player in the draft.  We haven't heard that phrase in Buffalo since Bruce Smith was taken first overall in 1985.
   Even in an exceptional year for defensive linemen, Dareus easily emerged as the top guy at his position.  He's got incredible strength, speed and size.  He's got multiple years of production in college.  He's a leader who seems dedicated to being a great one.  He's also got versatility to fit any defense the Bills throw at the opposition.
   Of course, potential is worthless until it comes out on the football field.  But if Dareus does manage to reach that potential, the 2011 offseason could be seen as the official turning point for the Buffalo Bills franchise.

  I came across this video on another website.  It's an amazing example of what Dareus is capable of.

Bills add six on draft's final day

   The 2011 NFL Draft concluded on Saturday afternoon, with the Bills continuing their focus on upgading the defensive side of the ball.  Although late-round prospects are usually long-shots, GM Buddy Nix and Head Coach Chan Gailey ended up getting good value.  With some development, a number of them could be contributors.
   Using their first of two picks on the fourth round, Buffalo went with another defensive back in Da'Norris Searcy from North Carolina.  Searcy was a two-year starter for the Tar Heels and led the team in interceptions during 2010.  Many draft experts believe he was underrated and overshadowed by other stars on the North Carolina defense.  He's expected to play strong safety and contribute on special teams for the Bills.
   With the pick they obtained trading Marshawn Lynch to Seattle, the Bills nabbed Clemson offensive tackle Chris Hairston.  As a First Team All-ACC lineman, Hairston was a three year starter for the Tigers.  Although he played left tackle in college, most experts see him on the right side in the pros.  With some development, he could eventually compete for a starting job amongst the Bills weak group of offensive linemen.
   The Bills gained some depth at the running back position in the fifth round, grabbing North Carolina's Johnny White.  A very versatile player, White also played for the Tar Heels as a wide receiver and cornerback.  If he had settled into one position for his whole college career, he probably would have been a much higher pick.  For now, he should be third on the depth chart behind Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller.
   Going back to theme of helping the run defense, Buffalo used its sixth round pick on inside linebacker Chris White, the 2010 leading tackler at Mississippi State.  White was named to the Second Team All-SEC and was another player who impressed Head Coach Chan Gailey at the Senior Bowl.  He will likely contribute on special teams.
   Closing out the draft, the Bills used their seventh round picks on Richmond cornerback Justin Rogers and Bethel-Tennessee nose tackle Michael Jasper.  Rogers was named to the First Team All-CAA as a defensive back and punt returner.  Jasper was a little-known prospect, but is listed at 394 lbs. and is shows great athletic ability for a man his size.

Overall Draft Opinion:
   Of course, it takes several years before a draft class can be accurately reviewed.  However, the Bills managed to address a number of major concerns and did a good job of selecting the players they wanted without reaching.  By this time next year, they could be in position to compete for a playoff spot.
   It took two drafts from Nix and Gailey, but the Bills defensive identity is slowly starting to develop an identity.  
   Marcell Dareus should be a monster next to Kyle Williams for the next 10 years, and both are versatile enough to play any spot along the defensive line.  If Torrell Troup and Alex Carrington make strides in their sophomore seasons, this group could be a force.
   Outside linebacker is still a weak point, but Kelvin Sheppard should develop into a good starter alongside Paul Posluszny in the middle.  I like the focus on stopping the run.
   I fully expect Aaron Williams to grab a starting job in the secondary, although I hope the Bills start making more of an effort to retain free agent cornerbacks in the future and stop the revolving door.

Defensive trend continues in Rounds 2-3

   The draft's second day was definitely a solid one for the Bills, who likely added two more starters to the defense.  Let's just hope that in a few years, this day won't remembered more for the players they ended up passing on.

Aaron Williams, Defensive
Back, Texas

   With a full night to contemplate the players remaining, Buffalo opted for Texas top-rated defensive back Aaron Williams with their first choice of the second round (34th overall).  Though he will likely start at nickel cornerback for the Bills, Williams could also be an eventual replacement (probably sooner than later) for Donte Whitner at safety.  Most experts had him tabbed as a mid to late first round prospect because of his physical, aggressive play and good size.
   Taking another defensive back might not have been a popular choice with fans, but it was definiitely a need.  Terrence McGee is getting up there in age and hardly played last year.  Drayton Florence and Whitner are free agents.  Leodis McKelvin has underachieved.  Ashton Yobouty never really developed.

Kelvin Sheppard,
Linebacker, LSU

   In the third round, the Bills addressed another huge need and grabbed another ball hawk with LSU inside linebacker Kelvin Sheppard.  Along with Marcell Dareus, he should be a big upgrade for the run defense and will fit perfectly in the 3-4 scheme.  
   Besides being the leading tackler for the Tigers, Sheppard impressed Head Coach Chan Gailey during the Senior Bowl.  Expect him to eventually beat out Andre Davis and Reggie Torbor for a starting job on the inside.
    By grabbing Williams and Sheppard, the Bills also passed on the few remaining highly-rated quarterbacks: Andy Dalton (2nd Round to Cincinnati), Colin Kaepernick (2nd Round to San Francisco) and Ryan Mallett (3rd Round to New England).  If any of those players develops into a Pro-Bowl signal caller, the Bills will definitely come to regret it.
   That goes double for Mallett, who will be groomed behind Tom Brady for the rival Patriots.  Many thought Mallett had the best skills of any quarterback in the draft, but his stock plummeted because of "character concerns."  If those concerns are merited, there is no better place for Mallett to get his head straight than sitting behind a future Hall of Famer for a couple years.

Bills nab Dareus at #3

Marcell Dareus, Tackle, Alabama
with Commissioner Roger Goodell

   It's been a long time since we could say this, but the Buffalo Bills hit a home run with their first pick on Thursday night.  GM Buddy Nix and Head Coach Chan Gailey wisely passed on the mediocre quarterbacks available in favor of Alabama defensive tackle Marcell Dareus.
   Besides filling what was arguably the biggest need on the team, Dareus was regarded by most experts as the best lineman available in this year's draft.  Many argued that he was the best player overall at all positions.
   Gailey said he envisions Dareus starting out as a 3-4 defensive end, although he pointed out that the rookie would be able to play at every spot on the line. 
   For now, the Bills front office will be turning their attention towards the second and third rounds, scheduled to start tonight at 6pm (ET).  They will have a good list of players to choose from.
   If they want to continue shoring up the defense, several good outside linebacker/end prospects remain on the board - some who were expected to have their names called yesterday.  That list includes Akeem Ayers of UCLA, Justin Houston of Georgia, Brooks Reed of Arizona and Jabal Sheard of Pittsburgh.  The Bills could also go for inside linebacker Martez Wilson of Illinois.
   On offense, there are still a handful of quarterbacks pegged by experts as having starting potential.  They include Andy Dalton of TCU, Colin Kaepernick of Nevada and Ryan Mallet of Arkansas.  Buffalo could also look towards the top rated tight end, Kyle Rudolph of Notre Dame.

2011 Mock Draft: First Round

   It's been an extremely messy offseason thanks to the lockout and the growing uncertaintly about whether professional football will even be played in 2011. 

   Tonight, eager fans will at least get a temporary fix with the first round of the draft starting at 8pm (ET) on ESPN and the NFL Network.

   This year's class will be a good one for the Bills to shore up their biggest weaknesses.  It is strongest at defensive line, with as many as 14-15 ends and tackles having a legitimate shot at getting their name called tonight.

   The Bills have had their name linked strongest to outside linebacker Von Miller and defensive tackle Marcell Dareus.  Both are considered to be a can't-miss prospects and both would fill a huge need on the defensive front seven.

   Mathematically, both scenarios work out great for Buffalo.  In the second round, the Bills should still have a shot at a starting offensive tackle (Derek Sherrod, Nate Solder, Gabe Carimi), one of those top defensive linemen (Phil Taylor, Adrian Clayborn), the top tight end (Kyle Rudolph) or a decent quarterback prospect (Ryan Mallett, Christian Ponder, Andy Dalton).

   Here is my mock draft for the first round...although I do expect some trades before the night is over.

1. Carolina Panthers:                       Cam Newton, QB, Auburn
2. Denver Broncos:                          Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama
3. Buffalo Bills:                               Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M
4. Cincannati Bengals:                       A.J. Green, WR, Georgia
5. Arizona Cardinals:                         Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU
6. Cleveland Browns:                        Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina
7. San Francisco 49ers:                      Prince Amukamura, CB, Nebraska
8. Tennessee Titans:                         Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn
9. Dallas Cowboys:                           Tyrone Smith, OT, USC
10. Washington Redskins:                    Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
11. Houston Texans:                           Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri
12. Minnesota Vikings:                        Jake Locker, QB, Washington
13. Detroit Lions:                               Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado
14. St. Louis Rams:                             Julio Jones, WR, Alabama
15. Miami Dolphins:                            Mike Pouncey, OG, Florida
16. Jacksonville Jaguars:                     Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue
17. New England Patriots:                   Cameron Jordan, DE, California
18. San Diego Chargers:                      J.J. Watt, Wisconsin
19. New York Giants:                          Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:                  Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson
21. Kansas City Chiefs;                        Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA
22. Indianapolis Colts:                         Gabe Carimi, OL, Wisconsin
23. Philadelphia Eagles:                       Muhammed Wilkerson, DT, Temple
24. New Orleans Saints:                       Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State
25. Seattle Seahawks:                          Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois
26. Baltimore Ravens:                          Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State
27. Atlanta Falcons:                             Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa
28. New England Patriots:                    Justin Houston, LB, Georgia
29. Chicago Bears:                               Nate Solder, OT, Colorado
30. New York Jets:                              Phil Taylor, DT, Baylor
31. Pittsburgh Steelers:                        Aaron Williams, CB, Texas
32. Green Bay Packers:                        Brooks Reed, LB, Arizona

Bills Should Pass on QB with top pick

Cam Newton, Auburn

   Draft analysts are now saying 2011 could be a “record year” for first-round quarterbacks.  Guys like Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallet, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder and even Colin Kaepernick have been tossed around this spring as potential Day One picks.

   Not surprisingly, the Bills are being talked about as a possible landing spot for one of them.

   Maybe I’m in the minority, but I hope they take a pass.  After doing a thorough review of game film on this year’s draft class, I believe the team would be better off upgrading the defense and waiting until 2012 to nab their QB of the future.
   Now, let me get this out of the way immediately.  I know the Bills need a quarterback.  I know the quarterback is the most important player on the team and that it’s almost impossible to win consistently without a good one.

   I also know that Ryan Fitzpatrick is probably not the long-term answer for this team.  And by long-term answer, I’m saying that I don’t see him ever becoming the kind of player that can lead Buffalo into the playoffs year after year, or to an eventual Super Bowl victory.

Blaine Gabbert, Missouri

   Sure, he is leaps and bounds ahead of Trent Edwards, J.P. Losman, Brian Brohm and pretty much every Bills quarterback since Drew Bledsoe.  He’s a great leader and makes the offensive players around him better.   But even in his “breakout year,” these were Fitzpatrick’s eye-popping 2010 stats: 

·         230.8 yards per game (16^th in the NFL)
·         23 total touchdowns (tied for 13^th in the NFL)
·         57.8 completion percentage (27^th in the NFL)
·         81.8 quarterback rating (22^nd in the NFL)
·         5-9 record as starter
  
   Comparing him to other passers around the league, Fitzpatrick seems to be more on the level of someone like Kyle Orton, David Garrard, Jason Campbell or Matt Cassel.  In other words…he is average. 

   Even if he continues to improve, does anyone in Buffalo honestly see him ever stepping into the same zip code as Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Aaron Rogers?  How about Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger or even Matt Shaub?

   With that in mind, why in the world should the Bills wait to grab Fitzpatrick’s eventual replacement?  Let's examine each prospect individually. 

Cam Newton, Auburn

   When it comes to pure athletic ability, nobody even comes close.  He’s as big as a linebacker, as fast as a running back and has a rocket for an arm.  He’s also been a winner at every school he’s been associated with, all the way back to high school.

   But in case we haven’t learned from countless athletic specimens who came before him and failed, a running quarterback isn’t going to succeed unless he can also perform well passing from the pocket.

   When you dissect film on Newton, you see a guy who chooses to run before going through additional reads.  You see a guy who gets jumpy in the pocket and becomes inaccurate when there is a little bit of a pass rush.

   Sure, there might be a lot of potential for Newton to be special.  But history shows that he will have to come a very long way for any of his talent to translate into the pros.  He’s just not worth risking at #3.

Blaine Gabbert, Missouri

   Again, here is a player that has gotten most of his hype from what he can do physically, and not what he looks like on the football field.

   From drills, you can tell he has a big arm, and has the accuracy to make all the NFL throws.  He also has some running ability and has that “pro-quarterback look.”

   Watch the games though, and you see a check-down passer who was rarely asked to win games with his arm.  You never see an impressive throw or a jaw-dropping highlight.  He just isn’t that special.  In my opinion, if he becomes an average NFL starter, he has reached his ceiling.

Ryan Mallet, Arkansas

   Honestly, I like Mallet the most out of this draft class and I think his skills will translate best to the next level. 

   True, he’s not very athletic and won’t be able to make many throws outside the pocket.  But his arm strength is incredible, he has good accuracy and he showed great success running an NFL-style offense at Arkansas. 

   At the same time, it’s hard to ignore the widespread character concerns about potential drug and alcohol abuse, especially when it comes to the leader of your team.  If they are just rumors, I see similarities to guys like Dan Marino and Drew Bledsoe.  If they aren’t, we might be looking at the next Ryan Leaf.

Jake Locker, Washington

   For some reason, there was once talk Locker could have been the top pick in last year's draft.  Instead, he stayed at Washington for what became a dismal senior year where showed horrible accuracy and the inability to win at the college level.

   So again, here is another athletic guy that can run and has a decent arm.  But if he often looks bad against college competition, how will he do against a top NFL defense?   Baseball is his fall-back, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up using it. 

Christian Ponder, Florida State

   Yawn.  There was a time when teams used the short passing game to hide deficiencies in their quarterback’s throwing ability.  Now guys are being selected in the first or second round to run such an offense.

   Ponder showed good mechanics at the Senior Bowl, but was less than impressive the rest of his time at Florida State and doesn’t have much of an arm.  Consider him a poor-man’s Blaine Gabbert, who no doubt would become the Bills next Trent Edwards.

Colin Kaepernick, Nevada

   A poor man’s Cam Newton.  He’s got a lot of the same athletic skills when it comes to outrunning defenders.  However, Kaepernick is even rawer as a passer and doesn't have the same kind of winning background.

   Consider him a major project and nothing else.

   In my opinion, the best tactic for Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey would be patience, letting other squads try their luck with this group.  Likely, the Bills will end up missing the playoffs again and secure another Top 10-15 pick next year.

   Most are familiar with Stanford’s Andrew Luck, who should be among the first chosen in 2012.  But quarterbacks like Landry Jones of Oklahoma and Matt Barkley of USC already look more promising than anyone coming out of this class.

   Quarterback is certainly the most important position on the field and an absolute necessity for success.  But many teams make the mistake of falling for athletic talent over regularly-demonstrated abilities on the field, and they pay for it in the end. 
   If the Bills want to climb out of the mess they’ve been in for the last decade, they need to learn from the mistakes of other teams and wait for the right guy to come along.

A Look Back: The 2006 NFL Draft

   For the Buffalo Bills, the 2006 NFL Draft will always be notable for being Marv Levy's first as team general manager.  Unfortunately, it will also be remembered as a prime example of the front office incompetence that has kept the franchise out of the playoffs for a full decade and counting.

   In pulling the former Hall of Fame coach out of retirement, Bills owner Ralph Wilson was clearly trying to capture some magic left over from the "glory years" following a terrible 5-11 season.  However, most team observers questioned if Levy (80-years-old at the time) really had what it took to build a winning team in the area of free agency and the salary cap.  Looking back, the critics were correct in that assessment.  Levy proved to be in way over his head and eventually resigned from the position after only two seasons.

    Going into draft weekend on April 29-30, 2006, Levy was already under fire from the media and fans for his underwhelming head coach hire (Dick Jauron) and weak free agent signings (Robert Royal, Larry Tripplett). 

   Despite holes all over the roster, the majority of fans were calling for the Bills to fill their need at defensive tackle with the number eight draft choice - targeting either Oregon's Haloti Ngata or Florida State's Brodrick Bunkley.  Those unhappy with the progression of J.P. Losman suggested nabbing a quarterback like USC's Matt Leinart or Vanderbilt's Jay Cutler.  Meanwhile, later picks could be used to shore up holes on the offensive line, in the secondary and at wide receiver.
   To say the Bills draft went against conventional wisdom would be an understatement.  The first round selections of safety Donte Whitner and defensive tackle John McCargo puzzled experts, who wasted no time in calling the team's 2006 draft a complete disaster.
   In all fairness, this draft class did ultimately contribute one very good player in fifth-round steal Kyle Williams, who has gradually developed over the last five years into a potential star on the defensive line.  And if not for some injuries and unforeseen circumstances (such as the surprising retirement of Brad Butler), there were some other late round picks that could have eventually become solid NFL starters.

   Here is a pick-by-pick look at how each of the 2006 selections has panned out so far.

Donte Whitner, Safety, Ohio State

First Round: #8 Overall
Donte Whitner, Safety, Ohio State

   Looking solely at Whitner’s production over the past five years, most people would probably admit that he's been a decent NFL safety. 
   But when you are a Top 10 pick in the draft and the first choice of a brand-new regime, you are expected to be a lot more than decent.
   Coming out of college, Whitner was widely considered the second best safety in the draft, right behind Texas’ Michael Huff.  Because of his aggressive play and skills at defending the run, most analysts had him going late in the first round or early in the second.  When the Bills called his name at the number eight slot, it was widely considered a tremendous reach - especially with players like Ngata, Bunkley, Leinart and Cutler still on the board.
   During his career, Whitner has managed very few big plays: racking up only 5 interceptions, 3 fumbles and 1.5 sacks (see stat sheet). Overall, he has proven to be a solid tackler - a plus considering how the Bills front seven struggle against the run.  His biggest weakness remains in coverage, where he struggles to stay with good pass-catching tight ends.  The last few years, Whitner has also been forced to battle for his starting job against converted wide receiver George Wilson.
   Making Whitner's career an even bigger disappointment has been the play of Ngata (the consensus pick amongst most Bills fans), who has turned in two Pro Bowl seasons for the Baltimore Ravens and become one of the best linemen in the league.

First Round: #26 Overall

John McCargo, Defensive Tackle, North Carolina State

   What made Buffalo’s selection of Whitner even more disastrous, was that it left the team scrambling only a few picks later to fill arguably its biggest need.  In a draft where defensive tackle depth was poor, the front office seemingly panicked that it wouldn’t be able to get a decent prospect with their second round choice.

   This resulted in Levy and co. sending their third round choice to the Chicago Bears, in order to jump up several slots and snag McCargo - a prospect most analysts didn't even have going until the middle of the second or early third round.

John McCargo, Tackle, NC State

   Though Whitner can be viewed as solid yet unspectacular, McCargo has been a complete bust, barely able to sniff the field in his first five seasons.
   At North Carolina State, McCargo benefitted from playing between Mario Williams and Manny Lawson.  With a quick initial burst, the Bills hoped he would be an asset to their newly implemented Cover 2 defense.
   Injuries ultimately derailed McCargo during his rookie season, although he hasn't managed to get anywhere near back on track at any point since.  Coaches have criticized him for a poor work ethic.  His less-than-impressive stat line includes one career start, 2.5 career sacks and 32 career tackles.
   The nail in the coffin came in 2008 when McCargo was traded to the Indianapolis Colts for an unspecified draft pick.  He was later returned to the Bills after failing his physical.
   To date, McCargo has managed to remain on Buffalo's roster, although it's hard to understand why.  Besides barely scratching the field, his size remains a poor fit for the Bills current 3-4 defensive scheme.

Third Round: 70th Overall

Ashton Youboty, Cornerback, Ohio State

   After being panned for reaching horribly on the first day of the draft, the Bills managed to snag several supposed "steals" in the later rounds.  Unfortunately, most of those bargains also failed to work out.
   With good size and all the skills to become a starting NFL cornerback, most figured that Youboty would be drafted sometime in the second round, with the potential to crack the first round.
   Like McCargo, Youboty has battled injuries and made virtually no on-the-field impact during his young career.  As of 2011, he has played mostly in nickle and dime packages, while managing only seven starts and one interception in five seasons (see stat sheet).  Lacking the speed to stay with most NFL receivers, Youboty has struggled to keep a roster spot.  This year's training camp might be his last with the Bills.

Fourth Round: 105th Overall
Ko Simpson, Safety, South Carolina

   By the fourth round, Levy and Jauron's draft strategy of implementing a youth-movement in the secondary was very clear.  While Whitner was expected to take the place of Lawyer Milloy, Simpson was considered heir-apparent to the aging Troy Vincent, until injuries destroyed a once promising career.
  A draft-eligible sophomore, Simpson was considered another potential steal for the Bills - garnering a second round grade from the experts.  Known as a ballhawk at South Carolina with strong pass coverage skills, Simpson dropped in the draft because of a lack of experience. 
   He immediately proved his worth in Buffalo, starting 15 games his rookie season and racking up 51 tackles and two interceptions.  In Week 1 of the 2007 season, Simpson broke his ankle and was subsequently put on injured reserve.
  Though he did play another full season for the Bills, Simpson was never the same after his injury (see career stats) and was traded to the Detroit Lions for a seventh round pick, where he remains a fringe starter.

Fifth Round: 134th Overall

Kyle Williams, Defensive Tackle, LSU

Kyle Williams, Tackle, LSU

   If the Bills can be criticized for blowing their early picks on marginal starters and injury prone backups, then credit must be due for knocking this one out of the park.
   With a breakout season in 2010, Williams emerged as the best and possibly most versatile player on the defense.
   At LSU, Williams earned the reputation as a very hard-worker with a non-stop motor in pursuing the ballcarrier.  But even a very good college career wasn't enough to ease scout concerns about his lack of size and athletic ability.
   It didn't take long for Williams to earn a starting spot along Buffalo's weak front defensive line.  Although he showed gradual progression each year (see stat line), going into 2010 many believed he wouldn't fit into the team's new 3-4 defense.
   Instead, Williams exploded with a Pro-Bowl season, proving he could handle the nose tackle position in a 3-4 just as well as in a four-man front.
   If he continues to improve and if the Bills give him some help along the line, Williams could eventually be discussed amongst the best in the NFL at his position.

Fifth Round: 143rd Overall
Brad Butler, Offensive Lineman, Virginia 
   It was disappointing to see the Bills wait until the fifth round to address their deficiencies along the offensive line.  But for a while, it really looked like Butler was going to be a solid addition.  That was, until his unexpected retirement after the 2009 season.
   After missing all but two games his rookie season, Butler earned the starting right guard spot in 2007 on a depleted Bills line.  He was seen as a good interior run blocker and was expected to be the long-term answer at right tackle. 
   During the second game of the 2009 season, Butler tore his ACL.  He never returned to football (see career stats), choosing instead to pursue his dream of doing service to kids in the community.

Sixth Round: 178th Overall
Keith Ellison, Linebacker, Oregon State
   A solid late-round addition, Ellison was pushed into the starting lineup very early after injuries to Takeo Spikes and Angelo Crowell.  Though he initially performed well for a young and inexperienced player, Ellison has only been a marginal starter and would probably be more suited to a backup role.
   Playing on both the weak and strong side, Ellison is a converted safety, known for being effective in coverage, but a liability against the run (see stat line).  Because of his size and the team's conversion to a 3-4 defense, Ellison received less playing time in 2010 and might not fit well into the team's future plans.

Seventh Round: 216th Overall

Terrance Pennington, Offensive Lineman, New Mexico

   Like with Ellison, a rash of injuries forced Pennington into heavy playing time early.
   The inexperienced rookie started the final nine games of 2006 at right tackle for the Bills.  But that was as good as it got for Pennington, as he was cut before the 2007 season (see career stats).  After Buffalo, he spent two years as a backup for the Atlanta Falcons and spent one training camp with the New York Giants.

Seventh Round: 248th Overall

Aaron Merz, Offensive Lineman, California

Typical of most seventh round picks, Merz was only was on the Bills for the 2006 and 2007 seasons.  During that time, he made a total of one start (see career stats).