Week 1 Recap: Buffalo 41, Kansas City 7

Bills dominant in season debut; crush Chiefs at Arrowhead

   You couldn't have asked for a better start to the season.

Scott Chandler and Donald Jones
celebrate a touchdown

   Sporting their new all-white uniforms, the Bills confidently marched into one of the NFL's toughest stadiums on Sunday and whipped a struggling Chiefs team that won it's division only a year ago.  
   In the opening minutes, Buffalo was able to jump ahead on the scoreboard and they never looked back.  During the game, they took full advantage of Kansas City's mistakes, made very few of their own and proved physical on both sides of the ball.  If one didn't know better, I would say they have the look of a potential playoff team.
   Of course, fans should probably temper their expectations.  It's a long season ahead and this is only one game.  For once, the Bills managed to catch all the key breaks (two fumbles in the red zone, a Kansas City missed field goal and replay taking a touchdown away), and their quick start helped take away the most dangerous part of the Chiefs attack.
   And there is a good chance that Kansas City (a surprising 10-6 squad last season) was overrated from the start - only beating two playoff teams last year.  They also entered the season with a new offensive coordinator, numerous injuries and looked very flat in the preseason.
   Still, it's hard to ignore a 41-7 win.  There was very little bad that could be found during Sunday's contest and too many players worthy of gameballs to mention them all.

Positives:

1)  Glimpses from the forgotten position...
   The Bills haven't had a playmaking tight end in so long, fans might be shocked to find that those guys are still allowed to catch passes.
   Considering how strong the Chiefs pass rush usually is (and how bad the Bills offensive line usually is), one would have probably expected Buffalo's tight ends to spend most of the afternoon helping in pass protection. 
   Instead, Scott Chandler (who had one NFL catch in three seasons before Sunday) came out of nowhere to post five catches, 63 yards and two touchdowns.  He showed a suprising ability to get open against both safeties and linebackers, and used his size (6'7, 263 lbs) to out-muscle defenders for the ball.
   Having a receiving threat at tight end will come in very handy this season, especially when the Bills play teams like Philadelphia and the New York Jets who are able to shutdown the outside passing lanes.

2)  Solid outing for the big guys up front...
   No group on the team has gotten as much heavy criticism - from coaches, the media and the fans - as the Bills offensive line.  And for good reason.
   But on Sunday, the normally impressive Chiefs pass rush was almost non-existent, while the Buffalo rushing attack was able to consistently churn out yards in the middle of the defense.  Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick had plenty of time to sit in the pocket and find receivers downfield.  With some holes and room to work with, running back Fred Jackson racked up 112 yards and a 5.6 yards per carry average.
   The line doesn't have to pancake defenders and play dominant for the offense to be able to score points.  They just have to limit their mistakes, bad blocks and blown assignments - thereby giving the skill positions the ability to do their thing.

3)  A big first step for the run defense...
   In 2010, the Chiefs were the league's top running team, while the Bills were on the verge of setting records for their inability to stop their opponents on the ground.  In their head-to-head matchup last year, Kansas City gashed Buffalo's defense for an incredible 274 yards on the ground.
   So all things considered, only letting up 108 yards on Sunday was more than a massive improvement.
   Much of the credit goes to the defensive line playing stronger at the point of attack, along with linebackers and safeties making good tackles near the line of scrimmage (some credit must also go to poor play calling by the Chiefs and a big lead that forced them to abandon the running game early).  Although Kansas City was able to break off a few decent runs, they never came on a regular basis.

4)  Props to the coaching staff..
   During his postgame press conference, Kansas City's Head Coach Todd Haley said the Bills came into the game ready to play, while his team didn't.
   Under our previous coaches, the Bills always seemed to be the ones a step or two behind.  We were always the ones unprepared, out of position and under utilized.
   Although I've questioned the direction of the team (especially in talent acquisition) as a whole over the last two offseasons, Gailey is certainly impressive as a coach.  His strategy and gameplan changes depending on matchups and the strengths/weaknesses of his weekly opponent. 
   Best of all, he manages to get the most out of his players.  Almost every player on the starting offense entered the NFL as either a seventh round draft pick or undrafted free agent.  Yet on Sunday, they piled 41 points on a defense full of first round talent.

Other Observations:

>>  I'm still holding out hope that C.J. Spiller develops into a force, but there is no doubt who the best running back on this team is right now.  If the coaching staff wasn't so reluctant to let him carry the full load, who knows what Fred Jackson would be capable of.

>>  The debate rages on.  Going into the season, I said that in order to secure himself as the longterm answer at quarterback Fitzpatrick needed to improve his touchdown-turnover ratio, win games against good teams and push the Bills offense into the top half of the league.  So far, so good.  Let's hope he can keep it up.

>>  Specialist Brad Smith finished with only six yards on three carries, but was able to pick up a couple significant first downs that continued important offensive drives.  Still, for the Wildcat to be effective in the future, he's going to have to complete some of those throws too, just to keep defenses honest.

>>  Overall, I liked what I saw from the secondary.  The cornerbacks did an exceptionally good job, especially in shutting down receiver Dwayne Bowe.  However, there were some coverage breakdowns against running backs and tight ends that need to be corrected.  Teams like New England, Dallas and Philadelphia (again) will feast on those plays all day.

Looking to next week:

>>  After their impressive showing against last year's top rushing offense, the Bills will come home to face 2010's second best running team, Darren McFadden and the Oakland Raiders.  They also boast one of the league's strongest defensive lines.
   The Raiders looked like an improved squad last year, finishing with an 8-8 record.  But owner Al Davis decided to blow up the operation and start from scratch.  They enter the season with a new head coach in Hue Jackson, in addition to the loss of some major talent (Nnamdi Asomugha, Zach Miller, Robert Gallery).
   Coaches will get their first look at Oakland on Monday night against Denver.  On paper, the Bills matchup very well and should be able to walk away with a win - especially at home.  However, they have to be careful not to ride their Week 1 success too much, or get caught looking ahead to their game against New England in Week 3.

2011 Buffalo Bills Season Preview

Expect another up and down season from uneven Bills squad
  

Head Coach
Chan Gailey

   With the slate wiped clean and the start of a new season, it's easy for people to forget that the 2010 version of the Buffalo Bills finished at only 4-12, tied for the second-worst record in the NFL.
   In the offseason, GM Buddy Nix focused almost exclusively on the defensive side of the ball, in hopes of improving the league's worst run stopping unit and boosting a below average pass rush.  Unfortunately, those moves came at the expense of helping an offense that already lacked blockers and scoring consistency.
   There are few doubts that Buffalo will be competitive most weeks and once again manage to take some playoff-caliber squads to the wire.  But even with a weak schedule (especially early in the season) on their plate, the Bills have too many holes and question marks to make a run at the postseason.  Smart coaches figure to create gameplans that will attack an extremely weak offensive line.  Depth is a concern if injuries strike anywhere.  And the overall talent gap is still too large for Bills players to step up regularly and put away the top teams in the fourth quarter.
   For Nix and Head Coach Chan Gailey, the grace period has passed and fans will expect some kind of signs in 2011 that the ship is finally on course.  Winning more games is a must.  But the microscope will also be heavily on the rookies and second-year players that need to show something to prove this regime knows what they are doing.

Offense:
   For the second straight season, Nix and Gailey neglected to bring in legitimate talent along the offensive line - choosing instead to piece together a group full of veteran castoffs and late round projects.  Going into the season, the Bills have at least three major question marks on the starting line and virtually nothing on the bench. 
   Although there are ways for an offense to occasionally work around poor blocking from the front five, ultimately it's a problem spot that will take points off the board, kill drives and limit Gailey's gameplans. 

Running Back C.J. Spiller

   The Bills also figure to be limited by erratic quarterback play that ranges from spectacular to terrible on a weekly basis.  Some believe that Ryan Fitzpatrick will take a big leap after a full year in Gailey's system.  But during the preseason, the veteran showed the same inconsistent tendancies that held the passing game down last year.
   Another obstacle for the offense is the loss of longtime wide receiver Lee Evans, a veteran presence in the huddle and the team's only known deep threat.  The Bills are crossing their fingers that Steve Johnson will continue his Pro Bowl caliber play with added attention, and that one of their young receivers steps up to become a legitimate playmaker.
   The offense desperately needs something out of running back C.J. Spiller, who never came close to earning his place as the #8 pick last year.  Fred Jackson is a tough runner that breaks tackles and gets the most out of his carries, but he lacks the explosiveness to make a big difference.  Spiller has the speed and elusiveness to be that guy - but has struggled to adapt to the pro-game and at this point, doesn't look like more than a third down/change of pace weapon.
   During the preseason, the Bills spent a lot of time experimenting with Brad Smith and the Wildcat formation.  It will be interesting to see how often it shows up in real action.

Defense:
   The pieces are in place for a massive turnaround on the defensive side of the ball.
   Last year, Pro Bowl tackle Kyle Williams became one of the best linemen in the NFL, showing an incredible burst off the snap and uncanny ability to penetrate into the backfield.  Unfortunately, nobody else on the front-seven was able to step up and make a stop when Williams was double-teamed and isolated from the ball. 

Rookie Lineman
Marcell Dareus

   The addition of #3 pick Marcell Dareus should make it impossible for teams to focus solely on Williams at the point of attack.  On the outside, Shawne Merriman is looking to return to his pre-injury pass rushing form.  If Dareus can start commanding extra blockers and Merriman becomes a force again, the Bills will create major havoc for quarterbacks.
   Improvement against the run starts on the line, but to see significant progress, it will likely come down to the linebackers staying aggressive, filling lanes and making solid tackles.  Free agent addition Nick Barnett has struggled with injuries, but if healthy he'll probably make more meaningful plays than the departed Paul Posluszny.
   If the front-seven is as improved as it could be, offenses will be forced to test the secondary on a regular basis - and there is no telling how that will work out.  The Bills got an unexpected good year out of cornerback Drayton Florence, but Leodis McKelvin has been a big disappointment thus far, Terrence McGee is returning from another injury plagued season and Aaron Williams is completely unproven.
   While Buffalo made some impressive upgrades in defensive personnel, the biggest difference might end up coming from the sidelines.  Players should be more comfortable in the defensive scheme after struggling in the 3-4 switch last year.  Assistant coach Dave Wannstedt also brings some much-needed knowledge and experience to a staff that was lacking in both last year.

Prediction:
   There are certainly pieces in place for the team to make great strides on defense, especially in stopping the run and rushing the passer.  But even if the defense reaches its potential, it's unlikely to be enough to make the Bills a contender.
   The offensive line figures to be a massive liability.  Fitzpatrick will likely mix some excellent games with some horrible ones.  Depth is poor, so if injuries start striking key positions, there will be little to fall back on.  And a lot is depending on the growth of young players with potential that haven't done anything yet in the NFL.
   Schedule-wise, the Bills should have eight very winnable games:  Kansas City, Oakland, Cincinnati, Washington, Tennessee, Denver and both contests against Miami.  The remaining eight games will probably be much tougher: Philadelphia, New York Giants, Dallas, San Diego and two games against New England and the New York Jets.
   Anything better than 8-8 would have to be considered a massive accomplishment.

Game Recap: Preseason Week 4 (Detroit at Buffalo)

Starters play sparingly in 16-6 loss; Bills finish preseason 1-3

    Being the final preseason contest, there wasn't much significant that could be taken away from Thursday night's contest against the Lions.
   Instead of risking the starters to injury, both coaches decided to use the live game action to give a final evaluation of those battling for final roster spots.  Overall, the Bills starting offense and defense played two drives a piece, before leaving with the score still knotted at zero.
   Some notes:

Positives:

1)  The "Front Seven" is looking more impressive as the weeks go by...
   Plenty of praise has been heaped on the defensive front during the preseason.  By consistently winning the battle at the line of scrimmage, the Bills have managed to simultaneously improve a pass rush and a run defense that were absolutely pathetic only nine months ago.
   But I was most impressed Thursday night on back-to-back plays when the Bills linebackers (Shawne Merriman and Chris Kelsay) were able to chase down screen plays that otherwise could have gone for big gains.
   It's one thing to play intense and aggressive.  But smart teams (such as the Patriots) will take advantage of a defense's over-pursuit by running draws and screens.  The way to combat that is by playing with discipline, taking good angles and not missing tackles. 
   If those two plays were indicative of what we can expect, I'm officially excited about the potential of this starting defense.

Negatives:

1)  Missed opportunities...
   If last year told us anything, we can expect the Bills to be in lots of close games.  Since their talent level is still below many of the regular playoff contenders, Buffalo can't afford to miss big plays when the opportunity arises.
   On their first drive, quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick overthrew Steve Johnson deep down the middle of the field for a potential touchdown, after the receiver had clearly beaten coverage.  On the next series, they switched places - as Fitzpatrick floated a high but catchable ball deep down the field, which Johnson had knocked loose from his hands. 
   Either catch would have meant at least a field goal, if not a touchdown.  Instead the Bills walked off the field with nothing.

2)  We better pray for an injury free season...
   While the offensive starters have been up-and-down during the preseason, the backup crew has been consistently terrible.  
   Although I liked the addition of Tyler Thigpen, he's really struggling right now and doesn't look capable of leading the team if Fitzpatrick goes down.  And as bad as the starting line has been - I can't picture the carnage if Ed Wang, Mansfield Wrotto or Chad Rhinehart get actual playing time in a real game.

Extra Points:
>>  With all the craziness of this offseason, I'm just ready for Week One.  The Bills have a chance to get everything kicked off nicely at Kansas City - a game which should be a very winnable against a team struggling to score points.

Game Recap: Preseason Week 3 (Jacksonville at Buffalo)

Fitzpatrick almost perfect; Bills win first preseason contest 35-32
  
   Will the real Buffalo Bills please standup...
   Only a week ago, Chan Gailey's squad had a hard time getting anything to go right.  The offense was abysmal and the defense was abused.  On Saturday night, the same group was completely dominating on both sides of the ball - showing off an explosive pass game and suffocating defensive line.
   Generally speaking, the third preseason game is considered the most important in gauging a team's level going into the regular season.  Regardless, Bills fans should curb their enthusiasm for a few weeks.
   Clearly, the Bills have enough firepower to compete with anybody.  But the biggest difference between the NFL's elite and bottom-feeders is consistency.  Buffalo has to keep the light on for 16 games if they really hope to make progress.
   Here are my notes from the game:

Positives:

1)  Who is that guy under center?
   Ryan Fitzpatrick is kinda like Dr. Jekyl and Mr. Hyde. 
   Against the Broncos, "Bad Fitz" was unable to connect on even the easiest of passes.  Throws were high, short, behind and floated into ridiculous coverage.
   Seven days later, "Good Fitz" stepped on the scene - rifling several perfect slants, hitting deep bombs in stride and hitting a perfect strike between defenders in the end zone.  We couldn't have expected more with Peyton Manning taking snaps.
   It's games like this that drive Bills fans mad, and keep the questions circling about whether he's the future at quarterback.  How can a player be so inconsistent?
   If Fitzpatrick can figure out the answer to that question, it's amazing to think about what he's capable of.

2)  A young receivers finally steps up...
   It would be an understatment to say that trading Lee Evans was not a popular decision.  In addition to a vicious lash-out from fans, a number of veterans went against the grain and publicly questioned the team's move.
   That's why it was so important for one of the Bills young receivers to have a big game during the preseason.  Not only does it ease concerns about the offense, but it also gives players confidence in the management's personnel decisions.  Division in the locker room is never a good thing.
   For Marcus Easley, it was a much-needed breakout (five catches, 51 yards and a touchdown).  Coaches have been high on him since training camp last year, but he's been unable to get healthy and was in real danger of getting cut.  It's not inconceivable that Easley could grab the #2 receiver spot very soon.

3)  Defensive line shines again
   The majority of top draft picks over the last two years have gone into shoring up the defensive line, so its' exciting to see the group finally becoming a force.
   For the third straight game, the run defense was strong at the point of attack - giving Jaguar running backs nowhere to run and not allowing the offensive line to generate any push.
   Last week, coaches experimented with a very base defense and no blitzing, only to watch the defense bring little pressure and the secondary get shredded.  On Saturday, the pass rush rebounded nicely, even with Shawn Merriman and Chris Kelsay on the sidelines, and with Marcell Dareus hobbling.
   The stars of the night were second-year lineman Alex Carrington, Pro Bowler Kyle Williams (who is the most explosive player I've seen come off the line since the Bills had Sam Adams) and usual backup Spencer Johnson.


Negatives:

1)  First half score was closer than it should have been...
   Football is a funny sport.  Even with tons of talent and great execution, a game can often come down to a few fluky plays and a stroke of (bad) luck.  That's exactly what the Bills saw on Saturday.
   The first 20 minutes of the game saw the Bills dominate both sides of the ball, quickly jumping out to a 17-0 lead against Jacksonville's starters.  But then came a terrible pass interference call, a couple missed tackles and soft coverage during the pre-halftime two minute drill.  All of a sudden, Jacksonville was within a touchdown of tying the game.
   The same thing has happened too many times when the games actually count, and Buffalo has been on the "unlucky" side more often than not.

Extra Points:

>>  I've been very critical of the offensive line this offseason.  They were very much improved this week, especially when it came to giving Fitzpatrick time in the pocket.  Still, this unit has a long way to go. 
   It only takes one bad block to kill a drive or take points off the board.  Failing to seal the edge on the third and goal play (first drive) was the only difference between a touchdown and a field goal.  And that point difference will cost us games in the regular season.

The Andrew Luck Sweepstakes: (Pre-Season Edition)

In worst-case scenario, Bills could finally land top QB  

   For even the most optimistic (and gullible) fans in Bills nation, it's already becoming pretty clear that 2011 is being setup as another lost season.
   Sure, whenever they are answering reporters or responding to angry fans, Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey claim they are trying to field the best team possible.  But all signs point otherwise.
   After sitting on their hands during most of free agency, the front office quickly traded away veteran receiver Lee Evans for a mid-round draft pick.  Despite the glaring holes on the offensive line, they won't even sign a temporary stopgap.

Andrew Luck,
quarterback, Stanford

   Whether fans support the way Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey are reshaping the team for the future, it seems that "right now" they should be preparing for another painful and frustrating season - followed by another top draft pick in April 2012.
  
   And maybe that won't be so bad.
   After all, expected to be sitting atop the 2012 draft board is Stanford's Andrew Luck - widely considered by scouts to be the best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning left school. 
   If those experts are correct about his potential, Luck could end up turning his new NFL team into a 10-15 year playoff contender.  All that team has to do to secure his services is finish dead-last amongst the 32 other franchises this season.
   Now, I'm not suggesting that the Bills tank on purpose, or that fans should hope for them to lose on Sundays.  What I'm saying is...there could be a positive side to losing this year.
   Consider Steve Johnson's infamous drop in overtime against the Steelers last year.  If he makes the catch, the Bills pull out an exciting upset - yet ultimately pointless win against a Super Bowl contender.  By ending the season with a 5-11 record, Buffalo gets a lower draft pick and misses on the chance to nab Marcell Dareus.
   So if the Bills are still 2-3 years away from competing for the playoffs, why not hope for the best?  Even if they miss out on Luck, quarterbacks Matt Barkley of USC and Landry Jones of Oklahoma should be excellent consolation prizes next spring (though they might also be gone in the top 3-10 picks).
   With that in mind, I've assembled a list of NFL teams that Buffalo will probably have to leapfrog in order to win the "Suck for Luck" sweepstakes.  I've considered a number of factors, including:

• Each team's current quarterback situation, including the player's age
• The chances, based on past performance and schedule, of that team losing enough to get a top draft pick

   Based on those factors, I figure that eight franchises (not including Buffalo) will have a good to great chance of taking Luck or one of the top quarterbacks in the 2012 NFL Draft. 
   Depending on how the season goes along, I plan on updating this list frequently as the year progresses.

Teams with a very high chance of drafting a QB in 2012

1.  Denver Broncos  (play Week 16 at home):   The Bills and Broncos are very similar teams.  Both finished 4-12 last season.  Both have overachieving quarterbacks with average-level talent.  And both used high draft picks last year to upgrade the defense.  Denver's new front office tried trading Kyle Orton in the offseason and is doing everything in it's power to distance itself from Tim Tebow.  Quarterback figures to be atop their shopping list come April.

2.  Washington Redskins (play Week 8 at home):   On paper, few teams figure to be worse than the Redskins, who finished last season 6-10 and broke up much of the roster.  Starting quarterback will be a battle between John Beck and Rex Grossman, which really says it all.  Washington also plays six games against its brutal NFC East rivals. 

3.  Seattle Seahawks:   After consecutive seasons of 4-12 and 5-11, the rebuilding Seahawks took advantage of a pathetic division and scraped into the playoffs with a losing record.  A year later, the division looks much tougher and Seattle hasn't added much talent.  Their quarterback situation is pathetic, with Tarvaris Jackson scheduled to start and Charlie Whitehurst nipping on his heels. 

4.  Miami Dolphins (play Week 11 on the road, Week 15 at home):   Despite finishing 7-9 the last two seasons, our longtime division rival has all the warning signs of a team ready for a massive free-fall.  Top executive Bill Parcells has abandoned ship.  Head coach Tony Sparano is on the hot seat and could be canned by mid-season.  Chad Henne is clearly not the answer at quarterback.  No matter how bad the Bills are, there is a legitimate chance they won't be the worst team in the AFC East.

5.  Oakland Raiders (play Week 2 at home):   One of the few NFL franchises that makes Buffalo's front office appear intelligent.  The Raiders improved dramatically in 2011, posting an 8-8 record - but then decided to blow everything up and start over.  They have a new head coach and lost their best player on offense (tight end Zach Miller) and defense (cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha).  The only constant is the unimpressive Jason Campbell at quarterback.

Teams with a somewhat decent chance of drafting a QB in 2012

6.  Cincinnati Bengals (play Week 4 on the road):   Technically, the Bengals already drafted their quarterback of the future with second-round pick Andy Dalton.  But with such a young squad, there is a good chance the team could be worse than last season's 4-12 record.  If Dalton fails to impress, or if head coach Marvin Lewis is fired - Cincinnati could be hard pressed to pass on Luck.

7.  Cleveland Browns:   No doubt, Colt McCoy silenced some critics and played pretty well in his rookie season.  But the Browns have finished a pathetic 5-11 two years in a row, and McCoy will have to prove really quickly that he's the long-term answer at quarterback.  If not, the team might push him to a backup spot and draft someone with one of two 2012 first round picks..

8. San Francisco 49ers:   Like the Bengals, the 49ers spent a high second-round pick on a quarterback in Colin Kaepernick. And talent-wise, the team is much better than last year's 6-10 record. But don't forget, Jim Harbaugh also coached Luck at Stanford. If he has a chance to get him in the pros, I doubt he would pass up the chance.  

Teams with a low chance of drafting a QB in 2012

9.  Kansas City Chiefs (play Week 1 on the road):   The 10-6 Chiefs appear to be a team on the rise.  Still, they have a much tougher schedule in 2011 and I've seen worse teams bottom out.  If so, quarterback Matt Cassel is certainly replaceable.  

10.  Tennessee Titans (play Week 13 at home):   Along with breaking in a new coach, the 6-10 Titans could start the season without offensive star Chris Johnson.  But even if they struggle, Tennessee already used the #8 overall pick in 2011 to take quarterback Jake Locker.

11. Minnesota Vikings:   See above, Tennessee.  The Vikings are clearly in a full-blown rebuilding mode, but it's unlikely they go for another quarterback after spending a first (#12 overall) on Christian Ponder in 2011.

12.  Jacksonville Jaguars:   See above, Tennessee and Minnesota.  The Jaguars might still be able to contend for a playoff spot, and drafted Blaine Gabbert at #10 overall as their quarterback of the future.  

Teams with very low chance of drafting a QB in 2012

13.  Chicago Bears:   The Bears finished 11-5 and won their division, so they would need a steep drop-off.  They also invested a lot to obtain Jay Cutler three years ago - although that playoff loss might have damaged their confidence in him.

14.  Detroit Lions:   They look like one of the NFL's top young offenses and could compete for a playoff spot.  But if Matthew Stafford gets hurt again, the staff might be forced to look elsewhere.

15.  Arizona Cardinals:   After paying a king's ransom to get Kevin Kolb under center, the Cardinals are hoping to return to the playoff race - and take themselves out of the running for a quarterback for the time being.

16.  Dallas Cowboys (play Week 10 on the road):   Even in bottoming out last year, Dallas is still one of the NFL's most talented squads.  He hasn't won a playoff game yet, but they seem to be comfortable with Tony Romo under center.

17.  Indianapolis Colts:   The only reason the Colts are this high is because of Peyton Manning's neck.  If he misses significant time in 2011, the team will certainly struggle and might have reason to grab their QB of the future.

18.  Houston Texans:   Quarterback Matt Shaub has been a great pickup for them.  It's the defense that has been keeping them from securing a playoff spot - and possibly more.  

19.  Carolina Panthers:   No matter how bad Cam Newton struggles in his rookie campaign, the Panthers cannot afford to take another quarterback at the top of the draft.  They have to focus on other positions.  Right?

Teams with almost no chance of drafting a QB in 2012

>>   New England, Philadelphia, New Orleans  -  These teams have aging superstars at the quarterback position, but will most likely be picking too late to secure a top prospect to replace them.

>>  Pittsburgh, San Diego, New York Giants, Green Bay  -  These teams have top quarterbacks who are just reaching their primes.  They won't need to find a replacement for a few years.

>>  Atlanta, St. Louis, New York Jets, Baltimore, Tampa Bay  -  These teams invested top picks during the last 3-4 years and are very high on the potential of their young passers.  They figure to be stars for years to come.

Game Recap: Preseason Week 2 (Buffalo at Denver)

Offensive line sputters again as the Bills lose 24-10

   Last week in their first preseason game, Buffalo showed just enough to give fans some hope for the upcoming season.  The pass rush was excellent.  The starting offense moved the ball well.
   But in typical Bills fashion, the team followed up their promising start with a stinker for the ages.  Saturday night's contest against the Broncos was just about as bad as they get.
   Of course, it's still to early to count 2011 out as a complete loss.  But it's really hard to watch a team struggle so badly - especially against one of only two teams that ended with a worse record last year.  Here are some of my observations from the game.

Negatives:

1)  The offensive line continues to be our Achilles heel...
   During the week, the Bills coaching staff reshuffled the starting five (most notably, benching Andy Levitre) in hopes of pulling some better play out of the unit.  Instead, the line played worse and was responsible for killing multiple drives in the first half. 
   In his four series at the helm, Ryan Fitzpatrick had very little time to throw amidst a collapsing pocket and untouched blitzers running free around the corner.  The running backs had similar problems, dodging tacklers in the backfield and searching for non-existent holes.  Left tackle Demetrius Bell was easily the worst of the group, getting abused by pass rushers Elvis Dumervil and rookie Von Miller on almost every snap.
   Shuffling the personnel along the line won't work, because there is simply too little talent for coaches to work with.  The Bills have been satisfied using late round picks and snatching up reject veterans off waivers to fill the line, and it's definitely coming back to bite them.

2)   The secondary fails its test...
   It's been hard to judge the Bills cornerbacks and safeties since Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey came on the scene.  Last year, opponents were more than happy to run the ball down our throats, rather than test the secondary. 
   With our run defense playing much better, the Broncos decided to air it out on Saturday night.  Quarterbacks Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn looked like superstars, easily hitting their wide recivers open in the middle of the field for big gains.
   To be fair, the Bills ran a very vanilla defense all night, sending almost no blitzes and often sitting back in coverage.  But it was still an ugly performance, with Leodis McKelvin and the recently re-signed Drayton Florence looking especially bad on the night.

3)   Another bad night for the quarterback...
    All eyes are on Fitzpatrick this season.  Can he shut up his critics and become the Bills long-term answer under center?  Or is he truly suited to a backup role, like most observers believe?
   The bearded one's biggest problem is accuracy, and once again, he was dreadful in that area on Saturday night.  Passes were high, low and behind receivers.  He often forced throws into coverage and lacked the touch to test Denver's defense deep.
   I'm expecting Bills fans to be on the "Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Landry Jones" bandwagon pretty early this season.

Positives:

1)  Our runners definitely have the talent....
   There wasn't much good that could have been pulled from the Broncos game.  But on a few scattered plays, second year back C.J. Spiller and veteran Fred Jackson showed why they are capable of being dangerous weapons for the offense.
   Spiller had nice runs of 5 and 14 yards and showed some good vision on the first drive.  He still loses too much on broken plays (-8 on a whiffed block by Bell), but those first couple scampers were encouraging. 
   Because of the atrocious blocking, Jackson remains the better player for Buffalo's offense, due to his ability to get something out of nothing (it's the same reason he was better than Marshawn Lynch).

Extra Points:

>>  Sorry to say it, but the Bills are definitely going to miss Lee Evans. 
   In only three quarters of play for the starting unit, it's obvious that the field has shortened tremendously for Buffalo's passing game.  Fitzpatrick seems only capable of converting quick slants and screen passes.  Defenses will adjust to that quickly. 
   None of the highly touted "young" talent - Donald Jones, David Nelson, Marcus Easley, Naaman Roosevelt - has stepped up to fill his shoes.

>>  The first-string run defense has been pretty good at the point of attack, with the defensive line getting a good push upfield (lots of credit to Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams) and stuffing most plays between the tackles. 
   However, the ends and linebackers are still getting pushed inside and caught out of position, especially on outside runs and screens.  The Bills still lack talent at these positions, and that will likely limit their overall improvement.

Linebacker Maybin one of team's first cuts

   Former first-round pick Aaron Maybin was released by the Bills on Monday, solidifying his place as one of the biggest busts in team history.
   The Penn State star was selected #11 in the 2009 draft by Buffalo, despite higher ranking players like Brian Orakpo, Clay Matthews and Brian Cushing still being available.  From the start, critics questioned the draft choice, saying Maybin was likely too small to be effective as an NFL defensive end.
   Those critics proved to be right.  Despite being praised by coaches for working hard, Maybin struggled to put on weight (playing usually 225-230 lbs) and was easily manhandled by NFL linemen.  During his two year career in Buffalo, he managed only 24 tackles, no sacks, no fumble recoveries and no interceptions.

Reaction:
   Not much of a surprise here.  Nobody expected Maybin to last into September, and he only made it through the first preseason game.
   Many people felt like he was the wrong pick back in 2009, and they were right.  The fact that Orakpo and Matthews are now two of the NFL's most promising young stars only adds salt to the wound.
   The talent(less) purge also continues for Nix and Gailey.  Just this offseason, they have gotten rid of former first rounders Maybin (cut), Lee Evans (traded), Donte Whitner (free agent) and John McCargo(unsigned).  Last year, they also dumped Marshawn Lynch (trade).

Game Recap: Preseason Week 1 (Buffalo at Chicago)

Re-vamped Bills pass rush dominates, despite 10-3 loss   
  
   It's important not to take too much from the preseason.
   Coaches often use very basic game plans.  A lot of starters only play at half speed, if they happen to play at all.  Many of the guys on the field in the second half won't even be on a roster come early September.
   Regardless, there were plenty of interesting trends and tidbits that came from Saturday night's contest against the Bears.  Some moments will likely get optimistic Bills fans excited, while others will raise major concerns.

Positives:

1)   The Bills might actually have a pass rush!
   For a team that managed only 27 sacks in 2011, the pass rush was incredible all night long.
   On the first two drives, a rejuvinated Shawn Merriman had two solo sacks, along with a play where he pressured quarterback Jay Cutler directly into the arms of Marcell Dareus.  Speaking of Dareus, the first round pick was constantly pushing into the backfield in his first NFL action, looking both incredibly strong and surprisingly quick.
   Overall, the Bills had an amazing nine sacks on the night - with both the starters and backups supplying consistent force up front.  In fact, Chicago's inability to throw from the pocket made it hard to judge the play of the defensive backfield.

Negatives:

1)   Stopping the run could be a big problem again...
   Like a replay of last season, the Bills were gashed for 164 yards on the ground.
   The Bills rush defense looked very promising during the first two series, with Bears running back Chester Taylor getting stuffed on several plays.  But the third drive was a much different story.  Most of Buffalo's starting defenders were still on the field, as Marion Barber rumbled his way down the field and helped the Bears score the only touchdown of the night.
   The reserve crew was even worse - getting blown off the line of scrimmage, easily shoved out of running lanes and caught in over-pursuit of the ball carrier.

2)   Blocking needs a lot of work...
   The offensive line is expected to be a big problem area again in 2011 - and to nobody's surprise, it looked like Buffalo's worst unit on the field Saturday night.
   Eric Wood, Kraig Urbik and Erik Pears all missed important blocks during the first two drives - major factors in the Bills starting unit only putting up three points.  The backups were dreadful, giving no room for the running backs and no time for the quarterbacks.
   If Saturday was any indication, head coach Chan Gailey will be calling for a lot of quick slants and screens to disguise his weaknesses on the line.  But that will only work some of the time.  At some points, the Bills are going to need to pickup big yardage and the big guys will have to give Ryan Fitzpatrick time.

Extra Points:

>>   The first-string offense used mostly short passes and a couple really nice runs by Fred Jackson to work the ball down field.  They might have scored more, if not for Urbik's missed block and an offensive pass interference call.  
   Fitzpatrick still seems like the inconsistent and controversial quarterback that polarized Bills fans last year.  On one hand, he has great command of the huddle and makes some really nice throws.  But he follows that up by sailing passes over the heads of his receivers.

>>  Gailey experimented quite a bit Saturday with the Wildcat formation, getting several good plays from free agent pickup Brad Smith.  The formation was also used by undrafted pickup Josh Nesbitt.
   It has yet to be seen how much Buffalo will use the formation during the regular season, but it does seem like it can be an effective play for the offense.

>>  Second round cornerback Aaron Williams had an up-and-down night.  During the second half, he was toasted on a two long passes that set Chicago up in the red zone.  But he was able to save the score with an athletic diving interception, where he managed perfect coverage and then tipped the ball to himself.

Bills offense would miss Evans



Lee Evans

   As free agency winds down, most of the stars and starting caliber players have dried up off the market.  Teams still looking for a big-play receiver have to focus on trading to fill a roster hole.
   This week, trade talks have surrounded Bills receiver Lee Evans, who has been linked to the Arizona Cardinals and Baltimore Ravens.
   No doubt, a rebuilding team like Buffalo should certainly entertain those offers.  If a favorable deal is out there, one couldn't knock the Bills for pulling the trigger and getting another high draft pick.
   But if teams aren't willing to part with a first or second rounder, I believe the eight-year veteran is just too valuable to let walk.
   Fans often criticize Evans for being one-dimensional, and rightly so.  Unlike many of the league's top receivers, Evans has never progressed beyond being a deep sideline threat.  Since J.P. Losman left town, the Bills haven't had a quarterback capable of consistently getting the ball to him downfield, and Evans has watched his numbers plummet.  With the sudden emergence of Steve Johnson last year (82 catches, 1,073 yards, 10 touchdowns) and other young depth at wide reciever, many have deemed Evans as expendable.
   But I believe his value to the team goes way beyond his statistical production.
   True, Evans might only be a deep threat, but it's still a threat that teams can't afford to ignore.  Defenses are forced to send safeties to his side of the field to make sure they don't give up the big play.  That allows other receivers to face single coverage underneath and ultimately thrive.
   Some may scoff at the idea of paying $5 million per season for a speedy decoy, but nobody on the Bills roster is currently capable of filling Evans shoes. 
   Without him streaking down the field, Johnson gets slammed with the double teams.  David Nelson or Marcus Easley are thrust into a starting position.  Roscoe Parrish is taken out of the slot and forced to play against his physical strengths.   
   I understand that at 30 years old, Evans isn't going to be effective forever.  But anything less than a first or second rounder would be a mistake, opening another hole and making things more difficult for those already playing well.

Offensive line could be a problem...again

   Some of the most knowledgable football personnel believe that football games are won in the trenches. 
   To them, having a good offensive line is not an option.  The big guys are vital in giving the quarterbacks and receivers time to work, and equally important in opening lanes for running backs to grind out yardage.  
   Not so much with the Buffalo Bills.

Eric Wood

   Going all the way back to 1993 and 1994 - when Buffalo allowed Pro-Bowl starters Will Wolford, Howard Ballard and Jim Ritcher to leave during the first years of free agency - the offensive line has proven to be one of the lowest of team priorities.
   The most notable instance was during the underachieving Tom Donahoe era, from 2001 to 2005.  Although the Bills were incredibly agressive in bringing top veteran talent into town, such as Drew Bledsoe, Takeo Spikes, London Fletcher, Sam Adams, Troy Vincent and Lawyer Milloy, it all ultimately fell apart because the team's offensive line was sub-par.

   Unfortunately, Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey appear to be going the same route when it comes to the offensive line.
   In their first offseason overhauling the roster, Nix and Gailey passed on several first-round caliber offensive line prospects to draft a running back incapable of carrying the ball more than 20 times a game.  They continued to completely ignore the position until the fifth round, finally taking tackle Ed Wang.  Their only pre-season free agent addition was Raider-reject Cornell Green.
   In April of this year, Nix and Gailey focused almost solely on stocking the defensive side of the ball, and chose to only draft one offensive lineman (tackle Chris Hairston in the fourth round).  During the recent free agent process, the Bills unsuccessfully attempted to sign Pro-Bowler Tyson Clabo from Atlanta, but apparently had no backup plan when that effort failed.

Demetrius Bell

   So here we are, only a few days away from the first preseason game.  The Bills are fielding virtually the same group as they did in 2010.  Word out of training camp is that the offensive line is getting consistently abused by pass rushers during practice.  One minor injury (to starting left tackle Demetrius Bell) has already exposed the lack of quality depth on the outside.
   Nevertheless, the Bills front office is high on the "potential" of a group consisting mostly of late-round projects and veteran castoffs.  It's a lot to ask, but hopefully Nix and Gailey are seeing something that isn't visible from outside the organization.  If not, it could be another long season for the Bills offense.
   Here's how the lineup breaks down:

Center/Left Guard:
    The Russ Brandon/Dick Jauron regime left quite a mess to fix. But fortunately, before getting the boot they did spend some high draft picks in 2009 on talented interior linemen Eric Wood and Andy Levitre.  And (not suprisingly) those two youngsters are the only spots on the line the Bills can safely count on.  Both are tough and physical players, with high expectations and plenty of room to improve their game.
   Wood has suffered with some injury problems and entering the season, he will have to get used to playing center again (his old college position.)  Understandably, there could be some growing pains.  At left guard, Levitre has started every game since his rookie season and despite some low points, has been the team's most consistent lineman.  If both stay healthy and continue to develop, the Bills will be solid on two out of five starting spots.

Left Tackle:
   The team has been patient at the left tackle position, hoping Bell would take advantage of his great physical attributes and athletic ability.  After suffering through his numerous blown assignments and devastating penalties, coaches believe the third-year player is finally ready to breakout.
   Bell made strides in his overall play and understanding of the game during 2010, and enters this season fully healthy.  But he still has a long way to go before the Bills can feel comfortable with the quarterback's blindside.  And with left tackle being (arguably) the most important position on the line, there isn't a lot of room for error.

Right Guard/Tackle:
   The rest of the line is a massive hole, with Bills officials hoping someone will step up from a slew of mediocre journeymen and development projects.  That list includes:

• Kraig Urbik (guard):  signed off waivers from Pittsburgh last year and coming off a knee injury; started two games last year
• Geoff Hangartner (center/guard): started the last couple years at center, but more likely suited to a backup role
• Chad Rinehart (guard): injuries forced the Bills to call him up from the practice squad last season; started three games
• Erik Pears (tackle): spent five seasons with Denver, Oakland and Jacksonville before joining Buffalo; started one game for the Bills
• Ed Wang (tackle): still a development project in his second season; looked terrible in practice this week
• Mansfield Wrotto (guard/tackle):  a castoff from Seattle's bench; started seven games last year on an injury riddle line
• Chris Hairston (tackle):  rookie; expected to take some time to develop

   There is no doubt that teams can get by without Pro Bowl talent on the line, especially when they "gel" and start working together.  Weak points can be disguised by creating blocking schemes that maximize protection and help less talented players with double teams.  Quarterbacks can assist by making faster decisions.
   But that can only go so far.  The Bills have settled for years of passing on the big guys during the draft and staying passive in free agency, leaving them with a lack of skill up front.  For 2011, they will have to cross their fingers and hope for massive improvement from at least three of their five starting spots - assuming they aren't struck by the injury bug again.
   Odds are that Buffalo will again struggle with pass protection and opening lanes for the backs - meaning the offensive line will hold the team back...again.

Front office lacks urgency and desire to become a top team

   Last March, Bills GM Buddy Nix joked with reporters about his inactivity on the free agent market, while the front offices from other teams stayed up well past midnight to work big money deals with agents.
   "They asked me if I was going to be there," said Nix.  "Hell no, I ain't going to be there. I'm going to bed."
   Of course, what Nix meant was that he believes in rebuilding a franchise through the draft, and not through free agency.  But to frustrated sports fans that already question their team's commitment to winning, it was a certainly poor attempt at humor.
   He might as well have said something like: 'You aren't going to get a Bill Belichick-type of effort out of me.  I'm too old to try that hard.'
   More than 16 months after that infamous press conference, the Nix regime remained virtually comatose during the few days of the NFL's free agent frenzy.  While teams all over the NFL snatched up veteran players to help improve their squads, the 4-12 Bills were content in adding a backup quarterback and a wildcat specialist.
   Yes...the team took a legitimate swing at signing Pro Bowl right tackle Tyson Clabo from Atlanta, but lost out in the bidding war, and then didn't bother pursuing anyone else on the market.  A few days later, the Bills almost let linebacker Nick Barnett leave for Detroit without a contract.  Fortunately, the Lions decided to go with Stephen Tulloch instead, giving the Bills Barnett by default.
   And with that...the Bills have (apparently) finished their shopping spree.
   As I write this article, the pathetic situation at offensive tackle is exactly the same as last year.  Chris Kelsay and Aaron Maybin are slated 1-2 on the depth chart at outside linebacker.  Our tight ends are still a waste of roster space.  Depth is still a concern across the board.  And oh yeah, the Bills are still more than $20 million under the salary cap.
   You can't tell me that out of the hundreds of veterans on the market, only 4 or 5 could have been worthwhile additions to a team that finished 4-12 last year.
   Now don't get me wrong.  I like that Nix apparently has a plan and that he's willing to stick with it.  He says he wants to build the team with young draftees and isn't willing to overspend on the big name free agents.
   But still, it's hard not to look at this front office without sensing an attitude of apathy and laziness.  Quite simply - nobody seems to be in a hurry for the Bills to get better. 
   Other teams (see New England, Philadelphia, Green Bay) are experts at managing every cent of the salary cap, stockpiling draft picks, getting maximum value on every single trade, aggressively pursuing the top free agents and exhausting all possibilities for improving their rosters.  It's a "win at all costs" mentality.
   The Bills are constantly caught in the "wait for next year" mentality - refusing to re-sign players for their market value (Paul Posluszny), relying on sub-par talent at key positions (Ryan Fitzpatrick, Demetrius Bell) and hoping for big contributions from unproven youngsters (Torrell Troup, Arthur Moats).
   The front office claims that drafting is essential in their rebuilding process.  But even with that, they don't seem to make the effort that some teams do to obtain more of those valuable picks.  For example:

• Last year, the Bills bumbled around for a month into the season before getting a measly fourth round pick from Seattle for Marshawn Lynch.  Rumors after the season suggested that New Orleans was willing to give them a third rounder, but Buffalo never bothered calling them to make an offer.
• During the 2010 draft, the team raced to the podium to select C.J. Spiller and later Torrell Troup, instead of using some of its time to field potential offers.  Other teams sit on their pick for a little while, just in case they could add another pick or two by moving down.   

   Nobody expected Nix to turn the team around overnight.  But from the outside looking in, he seems to be content in the idea of this rebuilding taking 3-4 seasons (maybe more) before the team is capable of even contending for a playoff spot.    
   Rebuilding - if done correctly and aggressively - doesn't have to take years and years.  There are numerous examples of it being done in a single season.  Last year, Tampa Bay jumped from 3-13 to 10-6.  In 2008, division rivals Miami and New York improved from records of 1-15 and 4-12 respectively to records of 11-5 and 9-7.
   Buffalo went backwards in the standings in its first season of rebuilding.  And after it's second offseason of roster moves, I don't see a significant improvement in talent from the days when Marv Levy and Dick Jauron ran the show.  Even more concerning, is that I don't think our front office is the slightest bit worried about it.
   The situation makes me think of watching training camp.
   Lots of football players come into the league with skills and talents, but they don't have the drive and desire to ever reach their full potential.  They become the Mike Williams and Aaron Maybins of the world.
   I get the same vibe from the executives at One Bills Drive.  I'm just not convinced they "want it" as bad as the other teams.  And until I get that sense, it's going to be really hard to get excited about our team.

Past winners prove free agency can be effective

   I've often heard the argument that "successful teams build through the draft."  Most of the time, that statement is in defense to a team not spending big in free agency.
   After all - they point out - Daniel Snyder and the Washington Redskins spend money like crazy, but haven't turned it into success on the field.  Meanwhile, the Colts and Steelers rarely sign outside free agents, but continue to make the playoffs year after year.
   But the truth is...there are many examples of recent NFL teams parlaying their aggressive signings and trades for veterans into Super Bowl success (New England and New Orleans for example).  And there are lots of cheap spenders choose to focus on building solely through the draft, but have nothing to show for it (Cincinnati and Buffalo).

Drew Brees was an amazing
free agent pickup for the Saints

   Of course, it all starts with the draft.  Impact players at certain key positions - like quarterback and left tackle - are tough to find and are almost never available in free agency (unless age and injuries are a significant factor).  And if a team drafts poorly - relying mostly on veteran pickups, their overall roster tends to age quickly and any success they experience is over pretty fast (see the 2003-2004 Oakland Raiders).
   But that doesn't mean teams should be content to ignore the free agent market.  Not every veteran player is Albert Haynesworth.  There are always solid pickups available that will end up being well worth the money, will fill holes along the roster, will add leadership/depth, and will ultimately make the team better.
   So below, I've assembled a short list of veteran pickups (either through free agency or trade) that made a significant impact on Super Bowl winners from over the last several years.  As you will see, some teams made big moves.  Others relied on smaller additions.  But none of them sat on their checkbooks during the offseason - relying simply on the draft to magically turn them into champions:

Green Bay Packers (2010 Champions)
   Top Addition:  Charles Woodson (CB)
   Signed to a six-year, $52 million contract in 2006, following a very successful period with the Oakland Raiders.  He has made the Pro Bowl three times as a Packer and won Defensive Player of the Year in 2009.
   Other Additions:  Ryan Pickett (DL),  Ryan Grant (RB)

New Orleans Saints (2009 Champions)
   Top Addition:  Drew Brees (QB)
   Coming off a shoulder operation, few teams wanted to take a chance.  The Saints got him for six years, $60 million in 2006.  Since then, he's made three Pro Bowls and become one of the league's top passers.
   Other Additions:  Jeremy Shockey (TE),  Jonathan Vilma (LB),  Scott Fujita (LB), 
Jabari Greer (CB),  Darren Sharper (S)

Pittsburgh Steelers (2005 and 2008 Champions)
   Top Addition:  Jerome Bettis (RB)
   Known for building through the draft, the Steelers were willing to trade down to obtain a top running back.  Bettis was the team's starting back for a decade and made four Pro Bowls during that period.
   Other Additions:  James Farrior (LB),  Jeff Hartings (OL),  Kimo Von Oelhoffen  (DL)

New York Giants (2007 Champions)
   Top Addition:  Plaxico Burress (WR)
   The Giants needed a top passing option for Eli Manning and Burress was a great fit.  Before his troubles with the law, he was an endzone magnet that caught the game-winning touchdown in the Super Bowl.
   Other Additions:  Sam Madison (CB),  Kareem McKenzie (OL)

New England Patriots (2002, 2004 and 2005 Champions)
   Top Addition:  (tie) Randy Moss (WR),  Wes Welker (WR),  Corey Dillon (RB)
   The top franchise of the last decade has also been one of the most active in obtaining veteran talent.  Corey Dillon was the missing piece that helped them win Super Bowl XXXIX.  Randy Moss and Wes Welker were the main components on the team that want 16-0 during the regular season.
   Other Additions:  Rodney Harrison (S),  Junior Seau (LB),  Mike Vrabel (LB), 
Adalius Thomas (LB),  Donte Stallworth (WR),  Keith Traylor (DL),  Antowain Smith (RB), 
Sammy Morris (RB),   Terrell Buckley (CB)

New CBA is great for Buffalo

   I'm going to go way against popular opinion when I say this.  But now that the smoke has cleared, I believe that the NFL's temporary lockout was ultimately a good thing.
   Sure.  It was sickening to watch rich people squabble about money.  The verbal shots back and forth were frustrating and ridiculous.  And at times, the threat of a lost season was very real.
   But in the end, the only loss was a single preseason game and some offseason workouts.  The gain was a much better financial structure for the NFL, a better plan for increasing competition - and a solid revenue sharing plan that could be the difference between the Bills staying in Western New York or eventually moving on to a bigger market.
   Like I pointed out in May (see article), this collective bargaining agreement was going to be vital to the future of the Buffalo Bills.  Owner Ralph Wilson specifically opposed the previous deal because he knew it would make competition very difficult for small-market teams.
   On Tuesday, Wilson told CBS Sports that he was very happy with the new agreement - which should speak volumes to Bills fans.  Below, I've detailed some of the changes that will have the biggest impact on the team.

1)  Revenue Sharing
   Wilson's biggest complaint with the previous CBA was about revenue sharing.
   In the NFL, only some revenue can be distributed equally amongst the 32 NFL franchises (such as television contracts and jersey sales).  Other revenue streams (such as stadium box seats and various team-licensed products) does not need to be split.
   This allows a large market franchise - like Dallas, Washington or New York - to make much higher profits than the smaller franchises - such as Buffalo, Cincinnati or Jacksonville.  Despite the disparity, all 32 teams are expected to abide under the same salary cap rules and compete for the same free agents.
   The new plan tries to make things more equal by having the top grossing teams provide some supplemental revenue to those on the bottom of the totem pole.  Although there will be some qualifiers to be eligible for that money, it's a plan that will almost certainly benefit the Bills - traditionally one of the lower income franchises.
   To be honest, I never thought some of the owners (see Jerry Jones, Robert Kraft) would go for something like this.  But I was wrong and I must applaud them for it.
   Small market teams like the Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers are just as important for the NFL as those in big cities.  It seems that big owners realized this and made a decision that might affect their bank accounts, but will be good for the sport as a whole.

2)  Salary Cap & Floor
   No more talk about Ralph Wilson being cheap.
   Along with re-installing the salary cap on player salaries, the NFL will be increasing its salary floor to about 90 percent of the cap.  For 2011, that means all teams will have to spend at least $108 million and cannot spend more than $120 million.
   Of course, the successful teams will still be the ones who use their finances wisely.  But certain owners can no longer save money by letting their unsigned stars walk and ignore the free agent market.
   According to ESPN, the Bills are currently at about $84 million.  That means they can add between $24-36 million in salaries before the start of the season.  It gives them some wiggle room to negotiate with some decent players.

3)  Rookie Wage Scale
    It's one thing to pay $20 million per year to a future Hall of Famer like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady.  It's quite another to shell out a similar contract for a guy fresh out of college that hasn't taken a snap in the big leagues. 
   Over the years, skyrocketing rookie contracts have gotten out of control - basically penalizing teams that draft high and forcing teams to cut solid veterans to make room for unproven youngsters.  Creating a rookie pay scale is good for the NFL in many ways.
   First, it eliminates rookie holdouts, allowing players to get into training camp earlier.  Second, draft picks will now have to perform well to receive their big payday (most players will now become unrestricted free agents after four years).  I'm expecting more motivated young players coming into the NFL and a lot less busts.
   For the Bills, it will mean getting quite a bargain on their first round pick Marcel Dareus.  Last year, defensive tackle Gerald McCoy was also taken at the #3 spot, and was signed to a $55 million, five year contract.  Dareus is expected to make around $5 million per year.
   It should free the team up to re-sign their own free agents (Paul Posluszny, Drayton Florence) and go after a couple big names on the market.


UPCOMING NFL SCHEDULE
Tuesday:         Teams can sign their draft picks
Friday:            Bills start training camp;  Free agent signings begin

Free Agency Watch (Part 3: Linebackers)

   The Bills were really bad at a lot of positions last year.  Nowhere was that more glaring than at linebacker.  
   Switching from the 4-3 to a 3-4 scheme forced a lot of players to learn new positions, and unfortunately most were not up to the task.  When the dust cleared, Buffalo had given up almost 170 yards rushing per game (worst in the NFL), while managing only 27 sacks.  More than a year after the switch, the team is still filled with undersized inside linebackers and outside rushers more suited as down linemen.

Current Roster:
(Outside): Shawne Merriman, Chris Kelsay, Arthur Moats, Aaron Maybin, Reggie Torbor, Danny Batten, (Inside): Paul Posluzny, Andra Davis, Kelvin Sheppard, Chris White, Akin Ayodele, Keith Ellison

   Although an upgrade is absolutely necessary, the team must first decide whether it's worth re-signing Paul Posluszny.  He might not be a perennial Pro Bowler, but letting him go would be disastrous for an already weak unit.  A lot is also riding on whether Shawne Merriman can return to his pre-steroids/injury form.
   The Bills could get a big boost by the development of youngsters like Arthur Moats, Kelvin Sheppard and pending-bust Aaron Maybin.  But at this point, there are no promises any will become an impact player.
  If the Bills are truly going to run a hybrid defense, it opens up a lot of possibilities for free agent signings.  But the front office can't just look for bodies to rotate.  They need impact players that will get to the quarterback and make plays in the run game.  With guys like David Harris, Tamba Hali, LaMarr Woodley and Chad Greenway already getting the franchise tag from their current teams, that's going to be very hard to find.

Matt Roth, Cleveland
   Out of all the defenders on the market, Roth is probably the best fit for the Bills.  The 28 year old has played 3-4 linebacker and 4-3 defensive end in the NFL, and done both effectively.  He's known for contantly bringing pressure from the edge (20 career sacks) and is more than solid in the run game.

James Anderson, Carolina
   In his fifth season, Anderson had a breakout campaign, racking up 130 tackles. 3.5 sacks and two forced fumbles. He's mostly played on as a strongside 4-3 linebacker, but could likely flourish in a hybrid attack. The Bills could definitely use the 27-year-old's run-stopping  and playmaking skills.

Stephen Tulloch, Tennessee
   When a guy racks up over 280 tackles in two seasons, he deserves some consideration for a team that ranked dead-last in run defense.  If he could adapt to a 3-4 scheme (he is a little undersized), he would pair very nicely with Poz in the middle.

Barrett Ruud, Tampa Bay
   Another 4-3 middle linebacker, there is a good chance the Buccaneers will end up slapping Ruud, 28, with the franchise tag.  If they don't, teams will have a chance to sign a guy with four straight 100-plus tackle seasons.  Despite his impact play ability, Ruud is a very similar player as Posluszny, making a lot of his stops downfield.

Manny Lawson, San Francisco
   As a former first round pick (2006), Lawson has been a bit of a disappointment, never fully developing the pass rushing skills he had in college.  He's still a young (27) and solid 3-4 outside linebacker with great talent.  He might benefit from a change in scenary.

Takeo Spikes, San Francisco
   Bills fans probably have fond memories of T.K.O. from back in 2003-2004, before injuries took their toll.  Now 34 and healthy, Spikes is having a resurgence (109 tackles in 2010).  Age is obviously a factor, but it would be nice to see him back in a Buffalo jersey.

Quincy Black, Tampa Bay
   He doesn't put up big numbers, but he's an important cog of the Buccaneers defense.  As a strongside 4-3 backer, Black, 27, has proved to be an excellent run stopper and even good in coverage.

Free Agency Watch (Part 2: Offensive Tackles)

   The Bills offensive line exceeded expectations last year. 
   Many observers thought Buffalo would field the worst unit in the league.  Instead, an inexperienced and minimally-talented group was somewhere between adequate and average.
   With Eric Wood (expected to move to center) and Andy Levitre manning one guard spot, Buffalo at least has some potential on the interior.  But if the Bills front office is serious about making the team a contender anytime soon, there have to be some serious upgrades at offensive tackle.

Current Roster:
Demetrius Bell, Erik Pears, Mansfield Wrotto, Cordero Howard, Ed Wang, Chris Hairston

   It's scary to think Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey would be satisfied to enter the season with this weak group, but they've done it before.
   There might have to be a bidding war with other teams and some decent contracts drawn up, but the Bills will likely have a handful of very good free agent blockers available on both sides of the line.   Only time will tell if they try to actually land one of them.

Left Tackles:

Doug Free, Dallas
   The Cowboys gambled last season by cutting Flozell Adams and promoting the unproven Free to start on the blindside.  He did not disappoint, proving to be great at run blocking and very good at pass blocking.  Dallas is expected to make a strong effort to re-sign the 27 year old.  If they can't, he'll probably be the most pursued lineman available.

Jared Gaither, Baltimore
   If not for injury concerns (back) that have de-railed his young career, Gaither would likely be at the top of this list.  The Bills were once rumored to be interested in trading for him, but backed off the pricetag of a second-round pick.  When healthy, the 25-year-old tackle can be very good and certainly has Pro-Bowl potential.

Jermon Bushrod, New Orleans
   Although he's been labeled as inconsistent - especialy in the run game, Bushrod would certainly be an upgrade for the Bills on the left side.  And at 26 years old, with only two years of starting under his belt, there might still be some room for improvement.  The Saints are expected to try bringing him back, but they've already invested a lot of money in their offensive line.

Jammal Brown, Washington
   Certainly not a long term solution, the 30-year-old would bring some much-needed veteran experience to the Bills and could play on either side of the line.  Despite being a two-time Pro Bowler, Brown has dealt with a lot of injuries.  He struggled early last season, but started regaining form as the year wore on.

Matt Light, New England
   Once one of the NFL's best, Light, 33, is clearly past his prime.  He's still a good run blocker, but has started struggling handling pass rushers.  Like with Brown, Buffalo could benefit from his presence and knowledge - while hoping the 3 time Pro Bowler still has something left in the tank.

Right Tackles

Willie Colon, Pittsburgh
   Considered one of the best right tackles in the league, Colon missed all of 2010 with a torn Achilles.  Since they were able to make the Super Bowl without him, Pittsburgh might decide he isn't worth a big contract.  If they don't re-sign him, another team will get a versatile blocker with serious Pro-Bowl talent...assuming he also returns to healthy form.

Marshall Yanda, Baltimore
   Yanda is expected to be one of the Ravens top priorities when operations resume. If he hits the open market, the 26 year old is probably more suited to play guard. But he did a very good job filling in when Baltimore was forced to reshuffle the lineup because of injuries. The Bills could certainly find a place for his skills.

Tyson Clabo, Atlanta
   After being named to his first Pro-Bowl appearance last season, Clabo will probably command top dollar on the open market.  He's known as a physical player and solid in both the pass-run game.  But at 30 years old, one has to wonder if 2010 was an abberation.  It's likely his value will be a little inflated.

Damien Woody, New York Jets
   A few years ago, you would be hard-pressed to find a better lineman than Woody.  But now 33 years old and coming off back-to-back major injuries (knee, Achilles), he might not have anything left.  Still, as stated earlier, the Bills lack a veteran presence and could benefit from him in the locker room for a year or two.

Others:
   When a team is lacking in talent and experience like the Bills, lots of players could provide starting help. 
   Denver's Ryan Harris is a young and solid right tackle with potential to get better.  Seattle's Sean Locklear is a strong pass blocker that could play on either side.

Free Agency Watch (Part 1: Tight Ends)

   Many argue whether teams are better off rebuilding through the draft or free agency.
   The truth is...both are extremely important.  With the NFL and players finally talking about a resolution to the lockout (sides are targeting a July 21 start to the season and July 28 kickoff to free agency), there is plenty of unsigned-veteran talent that could seriously upgrade the Bills current roster.
   At the present time, Buffalo has shown full support for Ryan Fitzpatrick as the starting quarterback.  The team is overstocked at wide receiver and running back is considered a strength.  The interior of the offensive line appears solid, while the draft addressed potential holes in the defensive backfield and at one d-line spot.
   But if the 2011 season were to start tomorrow, the Bills still have some serious weak spots that need to be taken care of.  The offensive tackles lack experience and starting talent.  Tight end is currently a waste of space on the football field.  The defense still lacks a serious pass rush and the team remains soft in the middle against the run.
   Over the next two weeks, I want to focus on some of the players that could help the Bills become more competitive, starting with tight end.

Current Roster: 
David Martin, Shawn Nelson, Scott Chandler, Mike Caussin, Jonathan Stupar

  To call this group "underwhelming" would probably be giving them too much credit.  None of these guys are legitimate threats as pass catchers and none are better than average as blockers. 
   In all of his years as an NFL coach/coordinator, Chan Gailey has preferred to see his tight ends block most of the time.  In fact, the only season a tight end ever caught more than 35 passes for Gailey was during his only year as offensive coordinator for Kansas City, when he inherited a roster with Tony Gonzalez.
   Regardless, having another receiving threat could only help an offense that finished near the bottom of the NFL...again.  This year's crop of free agents looked exceptional, but has dwindled in the last couple months.  With Owen Daniels re-signing with Houston, Marcedes Lewis franchised by Jacksonville and Jeremy Shockey joining Carolina, I figure there are only two starting-caliber options left scheduled to hit the market...Zach Miller and Kevin Boss.

Zach Miller, Oakland
   Easily the best option at this position, Miller is equally good at run blocking and striking fear into opposing defenses as a pass catcher.  And at only 26 years old, he also seems to be getting better each season and would be an excellent addition to the Bills roster.
   As a Pro Bowler and the team's most consistent offensive weapon, the big question is whether the Raiders will be willing to let him walk (they might not have the ability to squeeze him under the salary cap).  He's likely to command a pretty hefty contract.
  
Kevin Boss, New York Giants
   If the Raiders re-sign Miller (or if the Bills are unwilling to shell out the cash), Boss would be a very good consolation prize.  Another multi-dimensional player with skills as a receiver and blocker, Boss stepped on the scene a few years ago when the Giants got rid of Jeremy Shockey.
   Despite competing with several pass catching talents on New York's roster, the 27 year old managed to rack up over 500 yards and five touchdowns each of the last two years.

Others:
   If the Bills aren't able to bring in Miller or Boss, they will have to settle for a one-dimensional player - probably one that lacks the ability to play 3-downs and is more suited as a rotational role.
   Bo Scaife had some good years for Tennessee with Vince Young under center, and is a decent blocker.  But as a receiver, he's nothing more than an occasional dump-off option.
   Daniel Fells (St. Louis) and Dante Rosario (Carolina) have also shown talent as pass catchers, but wouldn't be huge upgrades over the Bills current group.