Bills Should Pass on QB with top pick

Cam Newton, Auburn

   Draft analysts are now saying 2011 could be a “record year” for first-round quarterbacks.  Guys like Cam Newton, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Mallet, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder and even Colin Kaepernick have been tossed around this spring as potential Day One picks.

   Not surprisingly, the Bills are being talked about as a possible landing spot for one of them.

   Maybe I’m in the minority, but I hope they take a pass.  After doing a thorough review of game film on this year’s draft class, I believe the team would be better off upgrading the defense and waiting until 2012 to nab their QB of the future.
   Now, let me get this out of the way immediately.  I know the Bills need a quarterback.  I know the quarterback is the most important player on the team and that it’s almost impossible to win consistently without a good one.

   I also know that Ryan Fitzpatrick is probably not the long-term answer for this team.  And by long-term answer, I’m saying that I don’t see him ever becoming the kind of player that can lead Buffalo into the playoffs year after year, or to an eventual Super Bowl victory.

Blaine Gabbert, Missouri

   Sure, he is leaps and bounds ahead of Trent Edwards, J.P. Losman, Brian Brohm and pretty much every Bills quarterback since Drew Bledsoe.  He’s a great leader and makes the offensive players around him better.   But even in his “breakout year,” these were Fitzpatrick’s eye-popping 2010 stats: 

·         230.8 yards per game (16^th in the NFL)
·         23 total touchdowns (tied for 13^th in the NFL)
·         57.8 completion percentage (27^th in the NFL)
·         81.8 quarterback rating (22^nd in the NFL)
·         5-9 record as starter
  
   Comparing him to other passers around the league, Fitzpatrick seems to be more on the level of someone like Kyle Orton, David Garrard, Jason Campbell or Matt Cassel.  In other words…he is average. 

   Even if he continues to improve, does anyone in Buffalo honestly see him ever stepping into the same zip code as Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Aaron Rogers?  How about Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger or even Matt Shaub?

   With that in mind, why in the world should the Bills wait to grab Fitzpatrick’s eventual replacement?  Let's examine each prospect individually. 

Cam Newton, Auburn

   When it comes to pure athletic ability, nobody even comes close.  He’s as big as a linebacker, as fast as a running back and has a rocket for an arm.  He’s also been a winner at every school he’s been associated with, all the way back to high school.

   But in case we haven’t learned from countless athletic specimens who came before him and failed, a running quarterback isn’t going to succeed unless he can also perform well passing from the pocket.

   When you dissect film on Newton, you see a guy who chooses to run before going through additional reads.  You see a guy who gets jumpy in the pocket and becomes inaccurate when there is a little bit of a pass rush.

   Sure, there might be a lot of potential for Newton to be special.  But history shows that he will have to come a very long way for any of his talent to translate into the pros.  He’s just not worth risking at #3.

Blaine Gabbert, Missouri

   Again, here is a player that has gotten most of his hype from what he can do physically, and not what he looks like on the football field.

   From drills, you can tell he has a big arm, and has the accuracy to make all the NFL throws.  He also has some running ability and has that “pro-quarterback look.”

   Watch the games though, and you see a check-down passer who was rarely asked to win games with his arm.  You never see an impressive throw or a jaw-dropping highlight.  He just isn’t that special.  In my opinion, if he becomes an average NFL starter, he has reached his ceiling.

Ryan Mallet, Arkansas

   Honestly, I like Mallet the most out of this draft class and I think his skills will translate best to the next level. 

   True, he’s not very athletic and won’t be able to make many throws outside the pocket.  But his arm strength is incredible, he has good accuracy and he showed great success running an NFL-style offense at Arkansas. 

   At the same time, it’s hard to ignore the widespread character concerns about potential drug and alcohol abuse, especially when it comes to the leader of your team.  If they are just rumors, I see similarities to guys like Dan Marino and Drew Bledsoe.  If they aren’t, we might be looking at the next Ryan Leaf.

Jake Locker, Washington

   For some reason, there was once talk Locker could have been the top pick in last year's draft.  Instead, he stayed at Washington for what became a dismal senior year where showed horrible accuracy and the inability to win at the college level.

   So again, here is another athletic guy that can run and has a decent arm.  But if he often looks bad against college competition, how will he do against a top NFL defense?   Baseball is his fall-back, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up using it. 

Christian Ponder, Florida State

   Yawn.  There was a time when teams used the short passing game to hide deficiencies in their quarterback’s throwing ability.  Now guys are being selected in the first or second round to run such an offense.

   Ponder showed good mechanics at the Senior Bowl, but was less than impressive the rest of his time at Florida State and doesn’t have much of an arm.  Consider him a poor-man’s Blaine Gabbert, who no doubt would become the Bills next Trent Edwards.

Colin Kaepernick, Nevada

   A poor man’s Cam Newton.  He’s got a lot of the same athletic skills when it comes to outrunning defenders.  However, Kaepernick is even rawer as a passer and doesn't have the same kind of winning background.

   Consider him a major project and nothing else.

   In my opinion, the best tactic for Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey would be patience, letting other squads try their luck with this group.  Likely, the Bills will end up missing the playoffs again and secure another Top 10-15 pick next year.

   Most are familiar with Stanford’s Andrew Luck, who should be among the first chosen in 2012.  But quarterbacks like Landry Jones of Oklahoma and Matt Barkley of USC already look more promising than anyone coming out of this class.

   Quarterback is certainly the most important position on the field and an absolute necessity for success.  But many teams make the mistake of falling for athletic talent over regularly-demonstrated abilities on the field, and they pay for it in the end. 
   If the Bills want to climb out of the mess they’ve been in for the last decade, they need to learn from the mistakes of other teams and wait for the right guy to come along.