For even the most optimistic (and gullible) fans in Bills nation, it's already becoming pretty clear that 2011 is being setup as another lost season.
Sure, whenever they are answering reporters or responding to angry fans, Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey claim they are trying to field the best team possible. But all signs point otherwise.
After sitting on their hands during most of free agency, the front office quickly traded away veteran receiver Lee Evans for a mid-round draft pick. Despite the glaring holes on the offensive line, they won't even sign a temporary stopgap.
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| Andrew Luck, quarterback, Stanford |
And maybe that won't be so bad.
After all, expected to be sitting atop the 2012 draft board is Stanford's Andrew Luck - widely considered by scouts to be the best quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning left school.
If those experts are correct about his potential, Luck could end up turning his new NFL team into a 10-15 year playoff contender. All that team has to do to secure his services is finish dead-last amongst the 32 other franchises this season.
Now, I'm not suggesting that the Bills tank on purpose, or that fans should hope for them to lose on Sundays. What I'm saying is...there could be a positive side to losing this year.
Consider Steve Johnson's infamous drop in overtime against the Steelers last year. If he makes the catch, the Bills pull out an exciting upset - yet ultimately pointless win against a Super Bowl contender. By ending the season with a 5-11 record, Buffalo gets a lower draft pick and misses on the chance to nab Marcell Dareus.
So if the Bills are still 2-3 years away from competing for the playoffs, why not hope for the best? Even if they miss out on Luck, quarterbacks Matt Barkley of USC and Landry Jones of Oklahoma should be excellent consolation prizes next spring (though they might also be gone in the top 3-10 picks).
With that in mind, I've assembled a list of NFL teams that Buffalo will probably have to leapfrog in order to win the "Suck for Luck" sweepstakes. I've considered a number of factors, including:
- Each team's current quarterback situation, including the player's age
- The chances, based on past performance and schedule, of that team losing enough to get a top draft pick
Depending on how the season goes along, I plan on updating this list frequently as the year progresses.
Teams with a very high chance of drafting a QB in 2012
1. Denver Broncos (play Week 16 at home): The Bills and Broncos are very similar teams. Both finished 4-12 last season. Both have overachieving quarterbacks with average-level talent. And both used high draft picks last year to upgrade the defense. Denver's new front office tried trading Kyle Orton in the offseason and is doing everything in it's power to distance itself from Tim Tebow. Quarterback figures to be atop their shopping list come April.
2. Washington Redskins (play Week 8 at home): On paper, few teams figure to be worse than the Redskins, who finished last season 6-10 and broke up much of the roster. Starting quarterback will be a battle between John Beck and Rex Grossman, which really says it all. Washington also plays six games against its brutal NFC East rivals.
3. Seattle Seahawks: After consecutive seasons of 4-12 and 5-11, the rebuilding Seahawks took advantage of a pathetic division and scraped into the playoffs with a losing record. A year later, the division looks much tougher and Seattle hasn't added much talent. Their quarterback situation is pathetic, with Tarvaris Jackson scheduled to start and Charlie Whitehurst nipping on his heels.
4. Miami Dolphins (play Week 11 on the road, Week 15 at home): Despite finishing 7-9 the last two seasons, our longtime division rival has all the warning signs of a team ready for a massive free-fall. Top executive Bill Parcells has abandoned ship. Head coach Tony Sparano is on the hot seat and could be canned by mid-season. Chad Henne is clearly not the answer at quarterback. No matter how bad the Bills are, there is a legitimate chance they won't be the worst team in the AFC East.
5. Oakland Raiders (play Week 2 at home): One of the few NFL franchises that makes Buffalo's front office appear intelligent. The Raiders improved dramatically in 2011, posting an 8-8 record - but then decided to blow everything up and start over. They have a new head coach and lost their best player on offense (tight end Zach Miller) and defense (cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha). The only constant is the unimpressive Jason Campbell at quarterback.
Teams with a somewhat decent chance of drafting a QB in 2012
6. Cincinnati Bengals (play Week 4 on the road): Technically, the Bengals already drafted their quarterback of the future with second-round pick Andy Dalton. But with such a young squad, there is a good chance the team could be worse than last season's 4-12 record. If Dalton fails to impress, or if head coach Marvin Lewis is fired - Cincinnati could be hard pressed to pass on Luck.
7. Cleveland Browns: No doubt, Colt McCoy silenced some critics and played pretty well in his rookie season. But the Browns have finished a pathetic 5-11 two years in a row, and McCoy will have to prove really quickly that he's the long-term answer at quarterback. If not, the team might push him to a backup spot and draft someone with one of two 2012 first round picks..
8. San Francisco 49ers: Like the Bengals, the 49ers spent a high second-round pick on a quarterback in Colin Kaepernick. And talent-wise, the team is much better than last year's 6-10 record. But don't forget, Jim Harbaugh also coached Luck at Stanford. If he has a chance to get him in the pros, I doubt he would pass up the chance.
Teams with a low chance of drafting a QB in 2012
9. Kansas City Chiefs (play Week 1 on the road): The 10-6 Chiefs appear to be a team on the rise. Still, they have a much tougher schedule in 2011 and I've seen worse teams bottom out. If so, quarterback Matt Cassel is certainly replaceable.
10. Tennessee Titans (play Week 13 at home): Along with breaking in a new coach, the 6-10 Titans could start the season without offensive star Chris Johnson. But even if they struggle, Tennessee already used the #8 overall pick in 2011 to take quarterback Jake Locker.
11. Minnesota Vikings: See above, Tennessee. The Vikings are clearly in a full-blown rebuilding mode, but it's unlikely they go for another quarterback after spending a first (#12 overall) on Christian Ponder in 2011.
12. Jacksonville Jaguars: See above, Tennessee and Minnesota. The Jaguars might still be able to contend for a playoff spot, and drafted Blaine Gabbert at #10 overall as their quarterback of the future.
Teams with very low chance of drafting a QB in 2012
13. Chicago Bears: The Bears finished 11-5 and won their division, so they would need a steep drop-off. They also invested a lot to obtain Jay Cutler three years ago - although that playoff loss might have damaged their confidence in him.
14. Detroit Lions: They look like one of the NFL's top young offenses and could compete for a playoff spot. But if Matthew Stafford gets hurt again, the staff might be forced to look elsewhere.
15. Arizona Cardinals: After paying a king's ransom to get Kevin Kolb under center, the Cardinals are hoping to return to the playoff race - and take themselves out of the running for a quarterback for the time being.
16. Dallas Cowboys (play Week 10 on the road): Even in bottoming out last year, Dallas is still one of the NFL's most talented squads. He hasn't won a playoff game yet, but they seem to be comfortable with Tony Romo under center.
17. Indianapolis Colts: The only reason the Colts are this high is because of Peyton Manning's neck. If he misses significant time in 2011, the team will certainly struggle and might have reason to grab their QB of the future.
18. Houston Texans: Quarterback Matt Shaub has been a great pickup for them. It's the defense that has been keeping them from securing a playoff spot - and possibly more.
19. Carolina Panthers: No matter how bad Cam Newton struggles in his rookie campaign, the Panthers cannot afford to take another quarterback at the top of the draft. They have to focus on other positions. Right?
Teams with almost no chance of drafting a QB in 2012
>> New England, Philadelphia, New Orleans - These teams have aging superstars at the quarterback position, but will most likely be picking too late to secure a top prospect to replace them.
>> Pittsburgh, San Diego, New York Giants, Green Bay - These teams have top quarterbacks who are just reaching their primes. They won't need to find a replacement for a few years.
>> Atlanta, St. Louis, New York Jets, Baltimore, Tampa Bay - These teams invested top picks during the last 3-4 years and are very high on the potential of their young passers. They figure to be stars for years to come.
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