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| Head Coach Chan Gailey |
In the offseason, GM Buddy Nix focused almost exclusively on the defensive side of the ball, in hopes of improving the league's worst run stopping unit and boosting a below average pass rush. Unfortunately, those moves came at the expense of helping an offense that already lacked blockers and scoring consistency.
There are few doubts that Buffalo will be competitive most weeks and once again manage to take some playoff-caliber squads to the wire. But even with a weak schedule (especially early in the season) on their plate, the Bills have too many holes and question marks to make a run at the postseason. Smart coaches figure to create gameplans that will attack an extremely weak offensive line. Depth is a concern if injuries strike anywhere. And the overall talent gap is still too large for Bills players to step up regularly and put away the top teams in the fourth quarter.
For Nix and Head Coach Chan Gailey, the grace period has passed and fans will expect some kind of signs in 2011 that the ship is finally on course. Winning more games is a must. But the microscope will also be heavily on the rookies and second-year players that need to show something to prove this regime knows what they are doing.
Offense:
For the second straight season, Nix and Gailey neglected to bring in legitimate talent along the offensive line - choosing instead to piece together a group full of veteran castoffs and late round projects. Going into the season, the Bills have at least three major question marks on the starting line and virtually nothing on the bench.
Although there are ways for an offense to occasionally work around poor blocking from the front five, ultimately it's a problem spot that will take points off the board, kill drives and limit Gailey's gameplans.
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| Running Back C.J. Spiller |
Another obstacle for the offense is the loss of longtime wide receiver Lee Evans, a veteran presence in the huddle and the team's only known deep threat. The Bills are crossing their fingers that Steve Johnson will continue his Pro Bowl caliber play with added attention, and that one of their young receivers steps up to become a legitimate playmaker.
The offense desperately needs something out of running back C.J. Spiller, who never came close to earning his place as the #8 pick last year. Fred Jackson is a tough runner that breaks tackles and gets the most out of his carries, but he lacks the explosiveness to make a big difference. Spiller has the speed and elusiveness to be that guy - but has struggled to adapt to the pro-game and at this point, doesn't look like more than a third down/change of pace weapon.
During the preseason, the Bills spent a lot of time experimenting with Brad Smith and the Wildcat formation. It will be interesting to see how often it shows up in real action.
Defense:
The pieces are in place for a massive turnaround on the defensive side of the ball.
Last year, Pro Bowl tackle Kyle Williams became one of the best linemen in the NFL, showing an incredible burst off the snap and uncanny ability to penetrate into the backfield. Unfortunately, nobody else on the front-seven was able to step up and make a stop when Williams was double-teamed and isolated from the ball.
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| Rookie Lineman Marcell Dareus |
Improvement against the run starts on the line, but to see significant progress, it will likely come down to the linebackers staying aggressive, filling lanes and making solid tackles. Free agent addition Nick Barnett has struggled with injuries, but if healthy he'll probably make more meaningful plays than the departed Paul Posluszny.
If the front-seven is as improved as it could be, offenses will be forced to test the secondary on a regular basis - and there is no telling how that will work out. The Bills got an unexpected good year out of cornerback Drayton Florence, but Leodis McKelvin has been a big disappointment thus far, Terrence McGee is returning from another injury plagued season and Aaron Williams is completely unproven.
While Buffalo made some impressive upgrades in defensive personnel, the biggest difference might end up coming from the sidelines. Players should be more comfortable in the defensive scheme after struggling in the 3-4 switch last year. Assistant coach Dave Wannstedt also brings some much-needed knowledge and experience to a staff that was lacking in both last year.
Prediction:
There are certainly pieces in place for the team to make great strides on defense, especially in stopping the run and rushing the passer. But even if the defense reaches its potential, it's unlikely to be enough to make the Bills a contender.
The offensive line figures to be a massive liability. Fitzpatrick will likely mix some excellent games with some horrible ones. Depth is poor, so if injuries start striking key positions, there will be little to fall back on. And a lot is depending on the growth of young players with potential that haven't done anything yet in the NFL.
Schedule-wise, the Bills should have eight very winnable games: Kansas City, Oakland, Cincinnati, Washington, Tennessee, Denver and both contests against Miami. The remaining eight games will probably be much tougher: Philadelphia, New York Giants, Dallas, San Diego and two games against New England and the New York Jets.
Anything better than 8-8 would have to be considered a massive accomplishment.
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